India's CPEC Dilemma

The $46 billion CPEC is the flagship project within the even more ambitious Belt-Road programme of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, a transcontinental infrastructure project that would effectively convert the Middle Kingdom into the logistics hub of Eurasia and, potentially, the centre of the global economy.

Recent Development:

* A part of CPEC has been operationalized in November, 2016.

* Days after a senior Pakistani General suggested that India should shun its “enmity” with Pakistan and join the $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project, the Chinese foreign ministry has called the offer a “goodwill gesture”, exhorting India to take it up.

India’s Reaction to CPEC thus far:

India has opposed the project, bilaterally with China “at the highest level” as well as at the UN. Relations with China have deteriorated considerably since President Xi Jinping’s visit to Pakistan to announce the project in April 2015. Initially, New Delhi sought to play down its significance, as it was made just weeks before Prime Minister Narendra Modi travelled to China, and the government would have hoped to dissuade Beijing from pushing the more objectionable projects that run through disputed territory.

Contextualizing the ‘offer’ to India to join CPEC:

The offer to India was made along with offers to other “neighbouring countries”.

Iran: Chabahar port in Iran, which was initially seen as a competitor of the China-developed Gwadar port in Pakistan, is now being featured as the latter's "sister port".

Central Asia: Central Asian republics are pinning their hopes on talks with the Taliban - and, thereby, on Pakistan's role in the process - for the settlement of the Afghanistan problem and the economic and trade boom that is expected to follow.

Afghanistan: Further north, despite its problems on terror from Pakistan, Afghanistan is becoming a nodal point for China’s connectivity projects to Iran.

Russia: After having maintained a studied distance from the CPEC, Russia has suddenly decided to link it with its own Eurasian Economic Union project. Read together with Russia's recent dalliances with Pakistan, including its latest tripartite meeting with China and Iran, whereby it has virtually ceded to Pakistan crucial control over peace-making in Afghanistan by agreeing to facilitate the slackening of international censure of the Taliban, it looks like the party in India's neighbourhood is truly hotting up.

Way Ahead:

The Hindu: While India has done well to shore up relations with others in the region, it cannot afford to be blindsided by their involvement with the OBOR project and Chinese plans. CPEC is no longer a project in Pakistan, but one that runs through it, a project that will link 64 countries.

The Telegraph: Isolation, or isolationism for that matter, one must remember, has never been in India's scheme of things. Fostering of economic ties and soft borders were the cornerstone of its plan to settle the Kashmir problem with Pakistan. However, isolation of India happens to be the centrepiece of Pakistan's strategy - economic or otherwise. China, as well the other nations betting on the CPEC, appear to have momentarily forgotten Pakistan's problematic regional perspective. It is all very well to link up China to West Asia through one belt, one road. But no economic ecology in the subcontinent can thrive if it fails to link up with India's vast market. India ought not to terribly worry about missing a party.

Note: What does CPEC indicate about China’s rise in Asia and the world order?

China’s very own Marshall Fund? Symbolically it would be potent evidence of what economic benefits a country that allies with Beijing can expect. Chinese officials themselves speak of how the CPEC will not be just about trade and transit, it will be about bringing stability to Pakistan. Taming, as it were, a rogue state with poured concrete. And, if successful, Beijing would be able to argue it succeeded where Washington had failed.

CPEC - a sign of the ability of the Chinese government to act strategically on a grand scale: This is not something that comes naturally to Beijing. Even the all-powerful Communist Party is known to be nervous about domestic reaction to its foreign ventures. One reason China’s foreign aid has been grants rather than loans has been the negative social media reaction it gets at home to the gifting of money to foreigners. The Belt-Road has also received criticism. Completing the CPEC would be evidence its public will support an expensive project of questionable economic benefits but great strategic consequence.

CPEC - A test of China’s ability to work holistically in a foreign land: The China and Pakistan relationship has so far been military-to-military. Building CPEC will mean working with almost every stakeholder in Pakistani society, not traditionally a strong point of Chinese foreign policy.

In the coming years the corridor will be a test not of Chinese engineering, but of that country’s ability to use its influence on a whole host of fronts – and how ready it is to be rules-making superpower.