5 Significance of Afghan Peace Process for India

1. Peace in the region- is needed so that trade and prosperity could be ushered among the countries.
2. Strategic Depth- India has invested heavily in capacity building of the Afghan forces, administration among other domains. If a settlement is achieved, India will have a strategic partner in Afghanistan, which can be used as a tool against Pakistan.
3. Economic Markets- for Indian agricultural products, electrical machinery, rubber products, pharmaceuticals among others. During April-December 2016-17, the bilateral trade was to the tune of $590.1 million with India’s exports to Afghanistan being $377.2 million and imports from Afghanistan worth $212.9 million.
4. Connectivity- to Iran and Central Asia through highways.
5. Spread of terror- If the terror groups operating from and around Afghanistan-Pakistan border are not neutralized now and US withdrawal takes place in haste, it could have dangerous effects for Indian security.

5 Points on India's Stand on Afghan Peace Process

1. Legitimately elected government in Afghanistan should be a part of any peace initiative. In the past, the Afghan government was often sidelined by international interlocutors when they engaged with the Taliban.
2. All initiatives and processes must include all sections of the Afghan society. There is acceptability in India about talking to the Taliban, since they represent a “section of the Afghan society”.
3. The achievement of establishing democratic processes and human rights, including women’s rights, should be respected.
4. Any process should not lead to any ungoverned spaces where terrorists and their proxies can relocate.
5. Also, the Pakistan-based terrorist groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jamaat-ud-Dawa, and Jaish-e-Mohammed must not be allowed to relocate.

India's CPEC Dilemma

The $46 billion CPEC is the flagship project within the even more ambitious Belt-Road programme of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, a transcontinental infrastructure project that would effectively convert the Middle Kingdom into the logistics hub of Eurasia and, potentially, the centre of the global economy.

Recent Development:

* A part of CPEC has been operationalized in November, 2016.

* Days after a senior Pakistani General suggested that India should shun its “enmity” with Pakistan and join the $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project, the Chinese foreign ministry has called the offer a “goodwill gesture”, exhorting India to take it up.

India’s Reaction to CPEC thus far:

India has opposed the project, bilaterally with China “at the highest level” as well as at the UN. Relations with China have deteriorated considerably since President Xi Jinping’s visit to Pakistan to announce the project in April 2015. Initially, New Delhi sought to play down its significance, as it was made just weeks before Prime Minister Narendra Modi travelled to China, and the government would have hoped to dissuade Beijing from pushing the more objectionable projects that run through disputed territory.

Contextualizing the ‘offer’ to India to join CPEC:

The offer to India was made along with offers to other “neighbouring countries”.

Iran: Chabahar port in Iran, which was initially seen as a competitor of the China-developed Gwadar port in Pakistan, is now being featured as the latter's "sister port".

Central Asia: Central Asian republics are pinning their hopes on talks with the Taliban - and, thereby, on Pakistan's role in the process - for the settlement of the Afghanistan problem and the economic and trade boom that is expected to follow.

Afghanistan: Further north, despite its problems on terror from Pakistan, Afghanistan is becoming a nodal point for China’s connectivity projects to Iran.

Russia: After having maintained a studied distance from the CPEC, Russia has suddenly decided to link it with its own Eurasian Economic Union project. Read together with Russia's recent dalliances with Pakistan, including its latest tripartite meeting with China and Iran, whereby it has virtually ceded to Pakistan crucial control over peace-making in Afghanistan by agreeing to facilitate the slackening of international censure of the Taliban, it looks like the party in India's neighbourhood is truly hotting up.

Way Ahead:

The Hindu: While India has done well to shore up relations with others in the region, it cannot afford to be blindsided by their involvement with the OBOR project and Chinese plans. CPEC is no longer a project in Pakistan, but one that runs through it, a project that will link 64 countries.

The Telegraph: Isolation, or isolationism for that matter, one must remember, has never been in India's scheme of things. Fostering of economic ties and soft borders were the cornerstone of its plan to settle the Kashmir problem with Pakistan. However, isolation of India happens to be the centrepiece of Pakistan's strategy - economic or otherwise. China, as well the other nations betting on the CPEC, appear to have momentarily forgotten Pakistan's problematic regional perspective. It is all very well to link up China to West Asia through one belt, one road. But no economic ecology in the subcontinent can thrive if it fails to link up with India's vast market. India ought not to terribly worry about missing a party.

Note: What does CPEC indicate about China’s rise in Asia and the world order?

China’s very own Marshall Fund? Symbolically it would be potent evidence of what economic benefits a country that allies with Beijing can expect. Chinese officials themselves speak of how the CPEC will not be just about trade and transit, it will be about bringing stability to Pakistan. Taming, as it were, a rogue state with poured concrete. And, if successful, Beijing would be able to argue it succeeded where Washington had failed.

CPEC - a sign of the ability of the Chinese government to act strategically on a grand scale: This is not something that comes naturally to Beijing. Even the all-powerful Communist Party is known to be nervous about domestic reaction to its foreign ventures. One reason China’s foreign aid has been grants rather than loans has been the negative social media reaction it gets at home to the gifting of money to foreigners. The Belt-Road has also received criticism. Completing the CPEC would be evidence its public will support an expensive project of questionable economic benefits but great strategic consequence.

CPEC - A test of China’s ability to work holistically in a foreign land: The China and Pakistan relationship has so far been military-to-military. Building CPEC will mean working with almost every stakeholder in Pakistani society, not traditionally a strong point of Chinese foreign policy.

In the coming years the corridor will be a test not of Chinese engineering, but of that country’s ability to use its influence on a whole host of fronts – and how ready it is to be rules-making superpower.

India-Afghanistan Relations: Challenges and Prospects

India-Afghanistan Relations: Challenges and Prospects

UPSC GENERAL STUDIES: PAPER II (India and its neighbourhood relations)

Table of Contents

Present Situation in Afghanistan

India’s linkages with & broad objectives in Afghanistan

Recent Lows and Highs of India Afghanistan Relationship

Guiding Principles for India’s Afghanistan Policy

Novel Ways of Extending Assistance to Afghanistan

India-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership Agreement

“The closeness of the India-Afghanistan relationship is not a new phenomenon. It has existed since time immemorial. And as a close friend, ever since India's Independence, we have done and will continue to do whatever is required to be done to see Afghanistan grow and progress as a close friend.”

PM Narendra Modi

“India will stand by the people of Afghanistan as they prepare to assume the responsibility for their governance and security after the withdrawal of international forces in 2014.”

Former PM Manmohan Singh

Present Situation in Afghanistan

Security situation in Afghanistan is worsening.

Relations between Kabul and Islamabad are tense.

The peace process with the Taliban is in disarray.

There is a leadership change in Uzbekistan. Radical forces are spreading in the region as shown by suicide bombing at the Chinese embassy in Kyrgyzstan.

Note to understand Pakistan’s ploy in Afghanistan: Pakistan's former ambassador to the US, Husain Haqqani, whose book Magnificent Delusions is an essential guide, says that "Pakistan has always worried that the natural order of things would be for Afghanistan to come under the sway of India, the giant of the subcontinent. The Pakistani Army came to believe that it could gain leverage in Afghanistan through religious zealots. Afghanistan's secular groups and ethnic nationalists are all suspicious of Pakistan, so the only path in is though those who see a common religious ideology." This strategy is not new, Haqqani points out, noting that funding for such groups began in the mid-1970s, before the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in 1979.

Is there light at the end of the tunnel? Can the insurgency be suppressed? 

The country has a democratically elected government widely viewed as legitimate. Poll after poll has suggested that the Taliban is unpopular. The Afghan army fights fiercely and loyally. And yet the Taliban comes back.

Role of Pakistan: We cannot solve the problems of Afghanistan without recognising that the insurgency against that government is shaped, aided and armed from across the border by one of the world's most powerful armies.

It is an old adage that no counterinsurgency has succeeded when the rebels have had a safe haven.

Taliban leaders have been treated as State guests, but Pakistani leadership has constantly denied these allegations in the face of increasing evidence to the contrary.

Why is it important that India works with Afghanistan to control the situation on ground? 

When the India-hating Taliban ruled Afghanistan from 1996 until December 2001, Pakistani militant groups based out of Afghanistan launched frequent cross-border attacks on Kashmir. India was in all kinds of trouble when Pakistan-based Harkat-ul-Mujahideen terrorists hijacked an Indian Airlines flight on 24 December 1999 and took it to Kandahar airport in southern Afghanistan. The eight day hijack drama ended only after India freed three high-profile Kashmiri separatist prisoners.

India’s linkages with & broad objectives in Afghanistan

India’s linkages with Afghanistan

India’s economic, political, and strategic linkages with Afghanistan have improved significantly:

Investments: Indian projects of worth $2 billion have covered various sectors.

Scholarships: Every year 1,500 Afghan students come to India on fellowships.

Military Training: Another 500 training slots are provided to officials.

Defence Equipment Supply: Last year, four Mi25 attack helicopters were supplied to Afghanistan. More military equipment from India could be in the pipeline.

Financial Assistance: An additional $1 billion assistance was committed during the visit in September 2016.

Bilateral Trade: Last year, bilateral was $835 million with more than $300 million exports from Afghanistan to India. For many years, India is the number one export market for Afghan products.

India’s broad objectives in Afghanistan include:

Assist Afghanistan, which is undergoing three simultaneous transitions: Security, Political and Economic.

Ensuring the safety and security of its assets and personnel.

Increasing trade, transit, and energy links with Central Asia through Afghanistan are added objectives.

From low to high, India-Afghanistan relationship has seen it all in the last one year (September, 2015 – September, 2016). Comment

(Author’s Note: The purpose of this question is to clarify in brief as to what has happened since Hamid Karzai stepped down and Ashraf Ghani became the president of Afghanistan. Note that during Karzai regime, India had excellent relations with Afghanistan and had even signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement.)

After President Ashraf Ghani took charge in 2014, he made a decisive shift towards mending fences with the Pakistan Army, including visits to the Pakistan General Headquarters and inviting the Army and intelligence chiefs to Kabul, and signing an MoU between intelligence agencies NDS and ISI, even as his government joined talks with the Taliban hosted by Pakistan.

President Ghani took above steps at a great risk to his popularity – domestically and with India, all in the hope Pakistan would deliver peace. That effort failed spectacularly, undermining his domestic legitimacy. The battered president has turned to India for help.

Not only has President Ghani turned to India for help, but has also unequivocally condemned Pakistan’s use of state sponsored terrorism against India and itself.

What should be India’s guiding principles, so far as getting involved in Afghanistan affairs is concerned?

Close political ties with Kabul, strong goodwill among Afghan citizens and acceptance of India as an important regional player on Afghan matters indicate that India’s aid to Afghanistan has not gone waste.

Moreover even to safeguard our own interests (as outlined above), we must redouble our efforts, and work as follows:

Coordinator of global efforts: Afghanistan is an international project. It is beyond the capacity of New Delhi alone to resolve the serious security and development challenges.

Present hand-holding desirable: However, enhanced Indian engagement at this point will be a big boost to policy-makers in Kabul. In the prevailing negative western discourse on Afghanistan, Indian experts and think-tanks can also help in changing the narrative towards a positive outcome.

Use multilateral/regional groupings to garner support for Afghanistan: The Afghanistan-India-US trilateral dialogue is going to take place in New York soon. Next month, a major international conference on Afghanistan will take place in Brussels. The Heart of Asia Ministerial is taking place in Amritsar on December 4.

With appropriate framework, India can also work out joint projects with other partners.

Security Engagement: In recent months, the news out of the country hasn’t been good: District after district has fallen to the Taliban, with Afghanistan’s 352,000-strong army proving unable to hold ground. India opens itself up to risks by siding with Afghanistan. However, allowing Afghanistan to be overrun by Islamist warlords would impose terrible costs, too. Either way, India appears to be at the cusp of its most significant overseas engagement since Sri Lanka. Each step forward must be measured.

What can India do that looks beyond traditional ways of extending assistance?

(Some novel points)

Can the Indian government get market access to the Afghan fruit industry and dry fruit growers through chartered freight flights that help sell melons, grapes and pomegranates in cities like Delhi and Mumbai?

Can the Indian government help with technological and infrastructural support to the Afghan carpet industry so that its dependence on Pakistan for final finishing process and market reduces?

Lastly, can small Indian businesses be encouraged to set up shops in secured Special Economic Zones that Afghanistan has created in abandoned bases of US and Nato forces?

India-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership Agreement

The Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA) between the two sides, inter alia, provides for assistance to help rebuild:

Afghanistan's infrastructure and institutions;

Education and technical assistance to re-build indigenous Afghan capacity in different areas;

Encouraging investment in Afghanistan's natural resources;

Providing duty free access to the Indian market for Afghanistan's exports;

Support for an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned, broad-based and inclusive process of peace and reconciliation;

Advocating the need for a sustained and long-term commitment to Afghanistan by the international community.

Politico-security component: The agreement states clearly that the strategic partnership is not directed against “any other state or group of states”. India has merely agreed to assist in the “training, equipping and capacity building programmes for Afghan national security forces.”

High Powered Implementation Mechanism: A “Partnership Council” at the Foreign Ministers’ level with four separate joint working groups, on political & security consultations, trade and economic cooperation, capacity development and education, and social cultural & civil society interactions, will be set up. The numerous existing dialogue mechanisms between the two countries will be consolidated and brought under the Partnership Council. The two sides will also have a regular strategic dialogue. The setting up of a Partnership Council will ensure that bilateral relations get sustained attention.

Bibliography

17.09.16: The Afghan Push

http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/editorials/afghanistan-ashraf-ghani-visit-new-delhi-india-pakistan-jihad-terror-military-the-afghan-push-3035036/

20.09.16: Coherence in the neighborhood

http://m.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/indias-diplomacy-coherence-in-the-neighbourhood/article9121256.ece

25.09.16: India's Afghanistan policy on right track'

http://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/india-s-afghanistan-policy-is-on-the-right-track/story-1ydcHErzWmglejVp19qCeN.html

29.08.15: India Rebuffs Afghanistan on Strategic Meet

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-rebuffs-afghanistan-on-strategic-meet/article7592059.ece

Embassy of India, Kabul, Afghanistan – Webpage

http://eoi.gov.in/kabul/?0354?000