India-Afghanistan Relations: Challenges and Prospects
UPSC GENERAL STUDIES: PAPER II (India and its neighbourhood relations)
Table of Contents
Present Situation in Afghanistan
India’s linkages with & broad objectives in Afghanistan
Recent Lows and Highs of India Afghanistan Relationship
Guiding Principles for India’s Afghanistan Policy
Novel Ways of Extending Assistance to Afghanistan
India-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership Agreement
“The closeness of
the India-Afghanistan relationship is not a new phenomenon. It has existed
since time immemorial. And as a close friend, ever since India's Independence,
we have done and will continue to do whatever is required to be done to see
Afghanistan grow and progress as a close friend.”
PM Narendra Modi
“India will stand
by the people of Afghanistan as they prepare to assume the responsibility for
their governance and security after the withdrawal of international forces in
2014.”
Former PM Manmohan Singh
Present Situation in
Afghanistan
Security situation in Afghanistan is worsening.
Relations between Kabul and Islamabad are tense.
The peace process with the Taliban is in disarray.
There is a leadership change in Uzbekistan. Radical forces are
spreading in the region as shown by suicide bombing at the Chinese embassy in Kyrgyzstan.
Note to understand Pakistan’s ploy in Afghanistan: Pakistan's former ambassador to the US, Husain
Haqqani, whose book Magnificent Delusions is an essential guide,
says that "Pakistan has always worried that the natural order of things
would be for Afghanistan to come under the sway of India, the giant of the
subcontinent. The Pakistani Army came to believe that it could gain leverage
in Afghanistan through religious zealots. Afghanistan's secular groups and
ethnic nationalists are all suspicious of Pakistan, so the only path in is
though those who see a common religious ideology." This strategy is not
new, Haqqani points out, noting that funding for such groups began in the
mid-1970s, before the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in 1979.
Is there light at the end of the tunnel? Can the insurgency be suppressed?
The country has a democratically elected
government widely viewed as legitimate. Poll after poll has suggested that
the Taliban is unpopular. The Afghan army fights fiercely and loyally.
And yet the Taliban comes back.
Role of Pakistan: We
cannot solve the problems of Afghanistan without recognising that the
insurgency against that government is shaped, aided and armed from across the
border by one of the world's most powerful armies.
It is an old adage that no counterinsurgency has succeeded when the
rebels have had a safe haven.
Taliban leaders have been treated as State guests, but Pakistani
leadership has constantly denied these allegations in the face of increasing
evidence to the contrary.
Why is it important that India works with Afghanistan to control the
situation on ground?
When
the India-hating Taliban ruled Afghanistan from 1996 until December 2001,
Pakistani militant groups based out of Afghanistan launched frequent
cross-border attacks on Kashmir. India was in all kinds of trouble when
Pakistan-based Harkat-ul-Mujahideen terrorists hijacked an Indian
Airlines flight on 24 December 1999 and took it to Kandahar airport in
southern Afghanistan. The eight day hijack drama ended only after India freed
three high-profile Kashmiri separatist prisoners.
India’s linkages with & broad
objectives in Afghanistan
India’s linkages with Afghanistan
India’s economic, political, and strategic linkages with Afghanistan
have improved significantly:
Investments: Indian
projects of worth $2 billion have covered various sectors.
Scholarships: Every
year 1,500 Afghan students come to India on fellowships.
Military Training: Another
500 training slots are provided to officials.
Defence Equipment Supply: Last year, four Mi25 attack helicopters were supplied to Afghanistan.
More military equipment from India could be in the pipeline.
Financial Assistance:
An additional $1 billion assistance was committed during the visit in
September 2016.
Bilateral Trade: Last
year, bilateral was $835 million with more than $300 million exports from
Afghanistan to India. For many years, India is the number one export market
for Afghan products.
India’s broad objectives in Afghanistan include:
Assist Afghanistan, which is undergoing three simultaneous transitions:
Security, Political and Economic.
Ensuring the safety and security of its assets and personnel.
Increasing trade, transit, and energy links with Central Asia
through Afghanistan are added objectives.
From low to high,
India-Afghanistan relationship has seen it all in the last one year (September,
2015 – September, 2016). Comment
(Author’s Note: The purpose of this question is to clarify in
brief as to what has happened since Hamid Karzai stepped down and Ashraf Ghani
became the president of Afghanistan. Note that during Karzai regime, India had
excellent relations with Afghanistan and had even signed a Strategic
Partnership Agreement.)
After President Ashraf Ghani took charge in 2014, he made a decisive
shift towards mending fences with the Pakistan Army, including visits to the
Pakistan General Headquarters and inviting the Army and intelligence chiefs to
Kabul, and signing an MoU between intelligence agencies NDS and ISI, even as
his government joined talks with the Taliban hosted by Pakistan.
President Ghani took above steps at a great risk to his popularity –
domestically and with India, all in the hope Pakistan would deliver peace. That
effort failed spectacularly, undermining his domestic legitimacy. The battered
president has turned to India for help.
Not only has President Ghani turned to India for help, but has also
unequivocally condemned Pakistan’s use of state sponsored terrorism against
India and itself.
What should be India’s guiding
principles, so far as getting involved in Afghanistan affairs is concerned?
Close political ties with Kabul, strong goodwill among Afghan citizens
and acceptance of India as an important regional player on Afghan matters
indicate that India’s aid to Afghanistan has not gone waste.
Moreover even to safeguard our own interests (as outlined above), we
must redouble our efforts, and work as follows:
Coordinator of global efforts: Afghanistan is an international project. It is beyond the
capacity of New Delhi alone to resolve the serious security and development
challenges.
Present hand-holding desirable: However, enhanced Indian engagement at this point will be a big boost
to policy-makers in Kabul. In the prevailing negative western discourse on
Afghanistan, Indian experts and think-tanks can also help in changing the
narrative towards a positive outcome.
Use multilateral/regional groupings to garner support for Afghanistan: The Afghanistan-India-US trilateral
dialogue is going to take place in New York soon. Next month, a major
international conference on Afghanistan will take place in Brussels. The
Heart of Asia Ministerial is taking place in Amritsar on December 4.
With appropriate framework, India can also work out joint projects with
other partners.
Security Engagement:
In recent months, the news out of the country hasn’t been good: District after
district has fallen to the Taliban, with Afghanistan’s 352,000-strong army
proving unable to hold ground. India opens itself up to risks by siding with
Afghanistan. However, allowing Afghanistan to be overrun by Islamist warlords
would impose terrible costs, too. Either way, India appears to be at the cusp
of its most significant overseas engagement since Sri Lanka. Each step forward
must be measured.
What can India do that looks
beyond traditional ways of extending assistance?
(Some novel points)
Can the Indian government get market access to the Afghan fruit
industry and dry fruit growers through chartered freight flights
that help sell melons, grapes and pomegranates in cities like Delhi and Mumbai?
Can the Indian government help with technological and infrastructural
support to the Afghan carpet industry so that its dependence on Pakistan
for final finishing process and market reduces?
Lastly, can small Indian businesses be encouraged to set up shops in secured
Special Economic Zones that Afghanistan has created in abandoned bases
of US and Nato forces?
India-Afghanistan Strategic
Partnership Agreement
The Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA) between the two sides, inter
alia, provides for assistance to help rebuild:
Afghanistan's infrastructure and institutions;
Education and technical assistance to re-build indigenous Afghan capacity in different areas;
Encouraging investment in Afghanistan's natural resources;
Providing duty free access to the Indian market for Afghanistan's
exports;
Support for an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned, broad-based and inclusive
process of peace and reconciliation;
Advocating the need for a sustained and long-term commitment to
Afghanistan by the international community.
Politico-security component: The agreement states clearly that the strategic partnership is not
directed against “any other state or group of states”. India has merely agreed
to assist in the “training, equipping and capacity building programmes for
Afghan national security forces.”
High Powered Implementation Mechanism: A “Partnership Council” at the Foreign
Ministers’ level with four separate joint working groups, on political &
security consultations, trade and economic cooperation, capacity development
and education, and social cultural & civil society interactions, will be
set up. The numerous existing dialogue mechanisms between the two countries
will be consolidated and brought under the Partnership Council. The two sides
will also have a regular strategic dialogue. The setting up of a Partnership
Council will ensure that bilateral relations get sustained attention.
17.09.16: The Afghan Push
20.09.16: Coherence in the neighborhood
25.09.16: India's Afghanistan policy on right track'
29.08.15: India Rebuffs Afghanistan on Strategic Meet
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-rebuffs-afghanistan-on-strategic-meet/article7592059.ece
Embassy of India, Kabul, Afghanistan – Webpage
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