North Korea Nuclear Missile Test

North Korea Nuclear Missile Test

UPSC GENERAL STUDIES PAPER II: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India's interests

Facts

·         Full Name of Country: Democratic People's Republic of Korea

·         Geographical Location: Country in East Asia, in the northern part of the Korean Peninsula.

·         Capital: Pyongyang

·        Borders: To the north and northwest the country is bordered by China and by Russia along the Amnok (known as the Yalu in China) and Tumen rivers. The country is bordered to the south by South Korea (officially the Republic of Korea), with the heavily-fortified Korean Demilitarized Zone separating the two.

·         Ideology of North Korea:

o   Juche, an ideology of national self-reliance, was introduced into the constitution as "creative application of Marxism–Leninism"in 1972. The means of production are owned by the state through state-run enterprises and collectivized farms. Most services such as healthcare, education, housing and food production are subsidized or state-funded.

o   North Korea follows Songun, or "military-first" policy. It is the country with the highest number of military and paramilitary personnel, with a total of 9,495,000 active, reserve, and paramilitary personnel. Its active duty army of 1.21 million is the fourth largest in the world, after China, the U.S., and India. It possesses nuclear weapons. North Korea is an atheist state where public religion is discouraged.

Latest Development:

·         12.09.16: 5^th Nuclear Test of the year; explosive yield very close to that of Hiroshima bomb. North Korean government claims that with this detonation the regime has succeeded in miniaturising nuclear weapons to the point of attaching them to ballistic missiles.

Recent History of N. Korea’s Nuclear Development Programme:

·      It first conducted a nuclear test in 2006, followed by three more, in 2009, 2013 and in January this year. Each time the magnitude of the tremor associated with the test, an indicator of the energy yield, has increased, from around 4.3 in 2006 to 5.3 in 2016. In parallel, the regime is believed to have developed increasingly sophisticated delivery systems, ballistic missiles with a growing range.

Reasons why North maybe pursuing nuclear weapons program?

·         Helps maintain control over the population: North Korea's nuclear programme helps sustain the myth of the regime's invincibility and thereby its militarist control over an impoverished nation.

·    Lessons from those who gave up Nuclear arms: Kim Jong-un has learned, too, that those regimes bribed into giving up their nuclear weapons do not fare well. Ukraine agreed to surrender its warheads in 1994, after receiving guarantees of territorial integrity from Russia, the United Kingdom and the US. These have proved worthless. Muammar Qaddafi, who surrendered his nuclear-weapons ambitions, ended up being murdered on a roadside in Libya.

·         Combine the doctrines of national self reliance and military first.

·         South Korea is an American ally with guaranteed support from the latter in the event of any conflict. Thus North is bolstering its strengths to face off any eventuality. As an example consider the following point:

o   Plan to deploy THAAD, a U.S. missile defence system, in South Korea: This development can only exacerbate the North’s drive towards nuclear armament.

Consequences

·       Test of a nuclear warhead could herald a new era of heightened brinkmanship in the Korean Peninsula.

·    Other states may follow North Korean footsteps: For years now, the US, along with most of the international community, as sought “complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearisation” from North Korea. The reason for this is that North Korea was a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, from which it unilaterally withdrew when it first tested a nuclear weapon in 2003. Allow North Korea to get away with it, the argument goes, and Iran — painfully corralled into a nuclear deal last year — will go the same way. Then, so will a host of other states.

Reaction of the world and its impact:

·         Condemnation of this test by the UN did little to dampen the defiance of the North’s Supreme Leader, Kim Jong-un. Sanctions slapped on it in March have failed to have any effect, as they have since they were periodically imposed since 1992.

What should be done?

·         Hindu:

o   Re-examine Economic Sanctions: Latest explosive test may be an opportune moment to pause and re-examine the value of the sanctions aimed at isolating the North’s regime internationally.

o   China is Spoiler: No globally coordinated strategies will succeed as long as Beijing plays spoiler — as it has done historically.

§  How China is Spoiler: Reports from the border region with the North hint at continued trade with China. This trade sustains the North Korean economy and blunts the impact of North Korean sanctions.

§  Why is China Supporting North Korea? China's unwillingness to see the collapse of the regime in Pyongyang and thus avoid chaos at its borders has also translated into steadfast support for North Korea, no matter how recalcitrant.

o   China-US Coordination Required: A more sustainable approach may be to breathe life into the Six-Party Talks, and invest diplomatic currency in bringing Pyongyang back to the negotiating table. History suggests that failure to do so will only lead to one outcome.

·         Indian Express:

o   Perhaps the time has come to think the unthinkable, and ask how the world can learn to live with a nuclear North Korea. For example, the North Korean government could be offered some economic incentives and diplomatic recognition in return for capping its arsenal. This may be unfair — but the quest for the perfect should not sabotage the achievable.

·         Telegraph:

o    China is the only one with a key to solve this problem. China is likely to the key even more sparingly than before. North Korea may now become its bargaining chip as it tries to tone down America's meddling.

Impact on India

·     For India, America's defence partner, China's dalliance with nuclear-powered Pakistan and North  Korea will continue to worry, especially now that it is willing to challenge China at its games.