Manipur’s
old patterns of violence reignited
There are a handful of certainties in India’s
political life. Somewhere near the top of the list is this: The north-eastern states, critical
to India’s security and economic linkages, will be underserved in terms of both governance and public focus.
Case in
point: the highway blockade by the Nagas
and the counter-blockade by the Meiteis
in Manipur, on since November. Now, the Centre has sent in as many as 4,000
paramilitary troops to quell the violence, even as the call for President’s
rule in the state grows louder.
Manipur is no stranger to such blockades and
ethnic feuds between Nagas, Meiteis and other ethnic group have a long and
bloody history. In 2011,
there was initially a
hundred-day-plus blockade enforced by Kuki-led groups, and countered later by Naga groups, which
together had a debilitating effect on life in Manipur.
The current opposition to the district
reorganization move is being led by the United
Naga Council (UNC), which enjoys the support of the primary Naga
insurgent group, the National
Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah) or NSCN (I-M), and claims
to represent Manipuri Nagas.
Since early November, the United Naga Council
(UNC) has been blockading national highways 2 and 37—an old tactic—that run
through Manipur and serve as lifelines of the landlocked state.
Impact
of the blockade:
The blockade has as always imposed enormous
hardship on the people of Manipur—who are facing shortages of food, fuel, medicines, gas and other essential
supplies—but failed to achieve its political goals.
Cause
of the present crisis:
The immediate cause for the crisis at hand is the
formation of seven new districts
in the state—Jiribam, Kangpokpi, Kakching, Tengnoupal, Kamjong, Pherzawl and
Noney (which are being carved out of the existing districts of Imphal East,
Churachandpur, Senapati, Thoubal, Chandel, Ukhrul and Tamenglong).
Of these, Tamenglong,
Senapati, Ukhrul and Chandel are Naga-majority
hill districts which have now been separated from their non-Naga
populations, ostensibly to weaken the
Naga vote in the forthcoming assembly election.
This move also feeds directly into the old Naga demand for a Nagalim,
or a greater Nagaland which incorporates the aforementioned Naga-majority hill
districts of Manipur as well as parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Myanmar
into the present-day state of Nagaland.
This decision of district reorganization had as
much to do with long-pending demands
— in particular, for a new
Kuki-majority district to be carved out of the larger Senapati hill
district — as with easing
administrative access to far-flung areas from the district
headquarters.
With State Assembly elections around the corner,
the decision by the Congress-led government was also a desperate measure to woo the hill residents (Meiteis). While
residents and groups in the new districts have welcomed the decision, the UNC
has protested, alleging that areas with a Naga population have been divided and
that the lack of consultation is a
violation of commitments made by both the Centre and the State in various
memoranda of understanding.
Role of
Governments of Manipur and India:
Some commentators have alleged that the central
government has taken a hands-off approach to the crisis, allowing chief
minister Okram Ibobi Singh’s incumbent Congress government (in Manipur) to come
across as ineffective and incapable. These are largely unsubstantiated
allegations—but there is no doubt that the BJP will have to strike a fine
balancing act, carefully calibrating its strategies towards the Naga and Meitei
communities. New Delhi is in the process of negotiations with NSCN (I-M), and
must try to use the leverage it has over the latter to make UNC fall in line.
As for the Congress, Singh faces a strong
anti-incumbency wave as he prepares to seek a fourth term but he has
practically no opponents within the party. The loss of his MLAs (recently to
BJP) will, no doubt, hurt his campaign but, with the contentious district
reorganization effort, he has made it clear that he will put up a fight.
Officially, this is being done for administrative efficiency. But the very fact
that Singh chose to pick up the issue right before the polls indicates that it
is part of his electoral strategy to secure the Meitei vote.
He had done something similar in 2010 when he
prevented the general secretary of NSCN (I-M) from entering the state and
visiting his home town. This enraged the Nagas but won Singh the support of the
Meiteis who, though frustrated with the rampant corruption of his government,
see him as a buffer against Naga aggression. In 2011, during a similar blockade
that continued for more than 100 days, Singh played up the victim card and went
on to win the 2012 poll, but it remains to be seen if this will be enough to
win him the election in 2017.
The State government last month sought the
Centre’s assistance to end the blockade, given that New Delhi has been in peace
talks with the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (Isak-Muivah) group that
supports the UNC. While the Centre has sent paramilitary forces to both
Nagaland and Manipur, the inaction in clearing the blockade of the national
highways is puzzling.
Analysis
of using blockade as a political strategy:
Efforts to impose a political solution through blockades that cut arterial
routes supplying essential goods to various areas of Manipur are a cynical ploy.
Such action heightens
ethnic polarisation and threatens, once again, the fragile peace in the
State.
Ideally there should be a dialogue that involves all major stakeholders — the State
government, groups that support redistricting, the UNC and the Centre. But first, there should be zero
tolerance towards all such blockades.
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