Video Lecture Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vu3dbEdiTV4&t=615s
1.UPSC GK: How
SCO membership can benefit India? (IR)
09.06.18
At the annual summit of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Yekaterinburg, Russia, in June 2009, Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh gave Pakistan’s President
Asif Ali Zardari a tough message: “I am happy to meet you, but my mandate is to
tell you that the territory of Pakistan must not be used for terrorism.”
Both countries were “observers” at
that summit, but India had for the first time expressed interest in joining the
SCO, and had been represented at the level of the Prime Minister. One of the
diplomats who had then seen value in joining the Eurasian political, economic,
and security organisation was Ajay Bisaria, Joint Secretary (Eurasia) in the
Ministry of External Affairs — now India’s High Commissioner to Pakistan.
INDIA
UPGRADES FROM BEING OBSERVER TO FULL MEMBER: Ten years on, India will attend the SCO
summit in Qingdao, China, on June 9-10 as a full member. Both India and
Pakistan were admitted to the grouping at its summit in Astana, Kazakhstan,
last June. From then to now, world politics has undergone several tectonic
shifts, old assumptions have been challenged, and new variables have
entered the mix.
* US-IRAN: The United States has pulled out of the
nuclear deal (or JCPOA) between the P-5+1 and Iran, while the Europeans,
Chinese and Russians have stayed on.
* US-NORTH KOREA: US President Donald Trump and
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un are scheduled to meet in Singapore on June 12,
the first ever meeting between the leaders of the two countries.
* INDIA’S INFORMAL SUMMITS: After the
two-and-a-half-month standoff at Doklam, India and China have attempted to
reset relations with an informal summit between Prime Minister Narendra
Modi and President Xi Jinping in Wuhan.
* US SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA: The US has imposed sanctions
on Russia under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act
(CAATSA), which affects Indian defence purchases from its strongest defence
partner.
* US PAKISTAN: The US has delivered a public rebuke
to Pakistan for not cracking down on terrorists, and suspended military
assistance it.
* Prime Minister Modi has made
historic separate visits to Israel and Palestine, completing their
de-hyphenation.
* UK-RUSSIA: The chemical attack in Salisbury has
sharply escalated Russian-western tensions, and led to London and Moscow
expelling each other’s diplomats.
* REVIVAL OF QUAD: The India-US-Japan-Australia
quadrilateral has been revived against the backdrop of Chinese assertiveness in
the Indo-Pacific.
SCO
GIVES OPPORTUNITY TO RESET TIES WITH PAK: During his meetings in Qingdao over the
weekend, Modi will have challenges to address and opportunities to harvest. The
summit provides an opportunity for the Indian and Pakistani leaders to meet
informally on the sidelines of a multilateral event. The two sides are obliged
to cooperate on issues of mutual interest without bringing in their
bilateral disputes. Signing off on joint counter-terrorism exercises
will be a new form of engagement between the two militaries.
SCO
GIVES DEPTH TO INDIA-CHINA COOPERATION: After the frank and fruitful exchanges in
Wuhan, the summit will provide the Indian and Chinese leaders another
opportunity to meet and talk. Doklam was resolved just before the Xiamen BRICS
summit last year; the summit in Qingdao could be another marquee event for
China to use to build ties with its neighbours.
RE-AFFIRM
OLD FRIENDSHIP WITH RUSSIA:
Russia has been India’s staunchest supporter in the SCO, having lobbied hard
with Beijing for years to ensure its entry into the grouping. The conversation
with President Vladimir Putin will continue, picking up the threads from the
informal summit in Sochi last month. New Delhi has been clear that its relationship
with Moscow would not be impacted by the West’s approach towards the Kremlin.
CONTINUE
TO ENGAGE WITH IRAN:
Similar red lines will be in play in India’s dealings with Iran, an observer
state that has applied for full SCO membership. India has a powerful
strategic interest in Iran’s Chabahar port, and Modi will have the
opportunity to interact with the Iranian leader at the SCO. The Trump
administration is hostile to Tehran, but New Delhi has been seeking to signal
to Washington the alignment of interests in Chabahar, which allows access to
Afghanistan bypassing Pakistan.
ENGAGE
MORE WITH STANS:
While the West has been sceptical of India’s sitting down with the
less-than-free regimes of Central Asia, Russia and China, New Delhi has
always been careful to not signal alignment with these countries on issues of
governance. The “Shanghai Spirit” — the SCO’s driving philosophy —
emphasises harmony, working by consensus, respect for other cultures,
non-interference in the internal affairs of others, and non-alignment.
GREAT
PLATFORM FOR INDIA TO PROJECT ITS VISION OF ITSELF: The SCO’s main objective of
working cooperatively against the “three evils” of terrorism, separatism, and
extremism sits well with New Delhi’s interests. Indeed, the SCO summit
gives India an opportunity to showcase the kind of power it wants to be. As
Modi heads to Qingdao, his foreign policy advisers will do well to recall these
lines from the former National Security Adviser, Foreign Secretary, and envoy
to both Pakistan and China, Shivshankar Menon’s Choices: Inside the Making of
Indian Foreign Policy: “India cannot rely on others for its security because
its economic, political, and security interests are unique, a function of its
unique history, geography, and culture. If we wish to abolish mass poverty,
hunger, illiteracy, and disease and modernise our country… we can do so only by
becoming a great power, with the ability to shape the international system and
environment to our purposes.”
“Strategic
autonomy”, Menon wrote, “is not just a slogan or a desire but a necessity if we
are to transform India”.
XXX
2.New Asian
constellation
15.06.18 TH OPINION
QINGDAO
SUMMIT OF SCO:
Earlier this month, the picturesque city of Qingdao became the perfect venue
for a summit of eight Eurasian nations. India and Pakistan were the talk of the
town as they were making their maiden appearance as full members of the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
SCO’S
GOAL EVOLVED FROM SECURITY TO CONNECTIVITY AND COLLECTIVE IDENTITY: The SCO was formed in 2001, with the intent
of calming the Eurasian borders strained by the Sino-Soviet rivalry of the Cold
War. But the organisation has since mutated from its core security
orientation, seeking greater regional prosperity for the collective.
Culture has become an important element of the SCO, attuned to the group’s
search for an inclusive Eurasian identity.
CHINA,
RUSSIA AND NOW INDIA BECOME PILLARS OF SCO: China and Russia have been the pillars of the
SCO, encompassing a Central Asian core. India’s heavyweight entry in Qingdao
meant that Chinese President Xi Jinping, his Russian counterpart Vladimir
Putin, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi became instant stars of an aspirational
event. The two-day summit, which began on June 9, echoed an important subtext.
SCO’S
HARMONY AND PLURALITY STANDS IN CONTRAST TO PRESENTLY FEUDING G-7: The eight heads were meeting at a
time when the leaders of the G-7 were engaged in bitter Twitter feuds across
the Atlantic. Keen to contrast the rise of Eurasia as the vehicle of a
post-U.S. order, participating nations — China and Russia, especially — were
intent on showcasing the “eastern” values of mutual respect and plurality. Mr.
Xi went out of his way to quote Confucius as the template of the “Shanghai
spirit”, while Mr. Modi evoked Buddha and Rumi as precursors of an inclusive
SCO ideology.
SCO
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR INDIA TO MEET WITH CHINA: There were plenty of takeaways from the
summit, but for India, Mr. Modi’s meeting with Mr. Xi on the sidelines of the
event was important. It reinforced the promise of the Wuhan informal summit in
late April, where the two leaders met to bury the ghost of the Doklam military
stand-off and flag a fresh start to a relationship that has a mixed legacy.
The SCO summit also gave India fresh leads to engage with
Central Asia. Landlocked Uzbekistan will now funnel goods through the
Iranian port of Chabahar — a joint undertaking of Iran, India and Afghanistan.
UNDER
PRETEXT OF EURASIAN COOPERATION, INDIA PAK TIES CAN IMPROVE ESPECIALLY ON
CONNECTIVITY AND TRANSIT:
But perhaps more significantly, India is re-exploring a transit corridor to
Central Asia through Pakistan under the SCO’s multilateral connectivity
initiative. If the Pakistan-Central Asia two-way route works, it can
soften the ground for improved ties between New Delhi and Islamabad, as a
subset of the rise of Eurasia. During the summit, China and Russia repeatedly
highlighted that the SCO was a platform for narrowing India-Pakistan
differences.
India would do well to seize the
opportunity to develop a sustainable working relationship with Pakistan that
benefits both, notwithstanding South Block’s ingrained distrust of the Generals
in Rawalpindi.
The writer is The Hindu’s China
correspondent
XXX
India’s
pivot to Eurasia
20.06.18
TH Opinion
Sandwiched
between U.S. President Donald Trump’s acrimonious public exchanges with other
leaders at the G-7 (group of seven industrialised countries) summit (June 7-8)
and the headline-hogging U.S.-North Korea summit (June 12), the Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao, China (June 9-10) attracted
little international attention. It was the first SCO summit attended by India
as a full-fledged member (It has been an observer since 2005.)
SCO ORIGINATES AS SHANGHAI FIVE TO RESOLVE BOUNDARY DISPUTES
BETWEEN CHINA AND ITS NEIGHBOURS: The SCO
grew out of the Shanghai Five grouping — of Russia, China, Kazakhstan,
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan — which was set
up in 1996 to resolve boundary disputes between China and each of the four
other members. It admitted Uzbekistan in
2001, re-christened itself the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and broadened
its agenda to include political, economic and security cooperation. It admitted
India and Pakistan as full members in 2017.
The
SCO opportunity
ENTRY OF INDIA AND PAKISTAN HAS ADDED SIGNIFICANT GEO-POLITICAL
SIGNIFICANCE TO SCO: The admission of
India and Pakistan has expanded the geographical, demographic and economic
profile of the SCO, which now has about half
the world’s population and a quarter of its GDP . Its boundary extends southwards to the Indian Ocean.
SCO PLATFORM WILL HELP INDIA FORGE BETTER RELATIONS IN ITS
EXTENDED NEIGHBOURHOOD BEYOND PAKISTAN: The SCO’s
relevance for India lies in geography, economics and geopolitics. Its members
occupy a huge landmass adjacent to India’s extended neighbourhood, where India
has important economic and security interests. Its Central Asian countries
border Afghanistan, Pakistan and China. A narrow sliver of land separates
southern Tajikistan from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. When you have complicated relations with your neighbours,
it makes sense to strengthen relations with your neighbours’ neighbours. With Pakistan joining the Organisation and Afghanistan
and Iran knocking on the doors for membership, the logic of India’s membership
becomes stronger.
INDIA’S CONTACT WITH CENTRAL ASIA WEAKENED AFTER COLLAPSE OF
SOVIET UNION DUE TO INACCESSIBILITY: Since the
break-up of the Soviet Union, the optimal
development of India’s relations with Central Asian countries has been
constrained by lack of overland access through Pakistan and Afghanistan/Iran, because of political and/or security reasons. With new
multimodal transport corridors now envisaged through Iran, there are again
prospects of invigorating trade and investment links with this region (provided
fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran do not stymie this effort).
In
the formative years of the SCO, Russia pushed strongly for India to join it, to
somewhat balance China’s economic dominance in Central Asia. The Chinese were
not responsive. China has since consolidated its energy and economic foothold
in the region, where ambitious infrastructure and connectivity projects are
envisaged as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It has secured the
simultaneous admission of Pakistan into the SCO. India has to carve out a
political and economic space for itself in Central Asia, alongside Russia’s
role as net security provider and China’s dominating economic presence. The
Central Asian countries would welcome India breaking into this Russia-China
duopoly.
INDIA PAKISTAN MUSTN’T REDUCE SCO’S FUNCTIONALITY BY
BILATERAL ACRIMONY: The
India-Pakistan interaction was closely watched in Qingdao. The handshake and
exchange of pleasantries between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pakistan
President Mamnoon Hussain were noted, as also the absence of bilateral
altercations. It allayed apprehensions, expressed in the run-up to Indian and
Pakistani accession, that SCO deliberations would get bogged down by
India-Pakistan squabbles. It also
respected the etiquette of international organisations: countries join them to
promote shared objectives, not to settle bilateral scores.
The
India-Pakistan track
ALTHOUGH CHINA MANAGED TO REOLVE ITS BOUNDARY DISPUTES VIA
SCO, INDIA PAKISTAN MAY NOT BE ABLE TO: Russian
President Vladimir Putin has suggested that harmonious cooperation in the SCO
may pave the way for an India-Pakistan rapprochement, recalling that SCO
membership had facilitated resolution of China’s boundary disputes with Russia
and Central Asian countries. Chinese officials have also expressed this hope.
The circumstances are not comparable. China made substantial concessions to
settle its boundary disputes with Russia and Central Asia, in pursuit of larger
strategic and economic objectives in the region. India-Pakistan differences extend well beyond a boundary
dispute, flow from different historical circumstances and are located in a
different geopolitical environment.
COUNTER-TERRORISM, STABILITY AND SECURITY COOPERATION
BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN AT SCO: The SCO
will, however, nudge both countries to cooperate in sensitive areas. One
example is the Regional Anti-Terrorist
Structure (RATS) of the SCO, which
coordinates cooperation for security and
stability, through intelligence-sharing on criminal and terrorist activities. India and Pakistan, which exchange mutual
recriminations in such matters, have to find ways of cooperating in the RATS.
Defence cooperation is another tricky area:
enhanced linkages between armed forces is an SCO objective. India has agreed to participate in the SCO’s
counter-terrorism military exercises in Russia later this year, when Indian and
Pakistani troops will operate together. Reconciling Indian and Pakistani
perspectives in the SCO’s initiatives on Afghanistan would be yet another
challenge.
NPT, BRI, TERRORISM – MULTILATERALISM IN ALL THESE AREAS
WILL MEAN FOCUSING ON SHARED OBJECTIVES AND UNDERPLAYING DIVERGENCES: The expansion of SCO has diluted its unanimity on
hitherto shared perspectives. Tacitly accepting the fact that India and
Pakistan are not signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the
Qingdao declaration confirms the compliance of the SCO’s NPT signatories to its
provisions. India’s reservations on China’s BRI are accommodated by excluding
it from the list of SCO members that endorse it (all except India). The
boilerplate formulations on terrorism accommodate the concerns of various
members, without offending any. The essence of a functioning multilateral
framework is focusing on shared objectives and underplaying divergences.
SCO WILL BE ABLE TO ARTICULATE NON-WESTERN IDEAS IN KEY
GLOBAL ISSUES:
Besides expanding opportunities for India in
Central Asia, the SCO is a platform for articulating
a non-Western — as distinct from anti-Western — perspective on global issues. This includes opposition to selective advocacy of regime change, self-serving
homilies on human rights and intrusive advice on domestic policies. It suits India that the SCO is not stridently anti-West
in its pronouncements. The U.S. cultivates relations with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and
Uzbekistan to ensure logistical support for its Afghanistan operations
and to gradually wean
them away from Russian influence .
These countries welcome the room for manoeuvre
that this gives them. Russia and China also carefully avoid strong anti-West
postures in the SCO, preferring to deal
with differences quietly and bilaterally.
Balance
of forces
IF RUSSIA-USA RELATIONS FALTER, RUSSIA’S DEPENDENCE ON CHINA
MAY INCREASE, POSSIBLY LEADING TO DOMINANCE OF SCO BY CHINA: The challenge for India — besides that of security and
defence cooperation with Pakistan — may come from increasing Chinese dominance
of the SCO. This could happen if Russia-U.S. relations worsen further, leading
Russia to an even greater dependence on Chinese political and economic support.
KOREAN PEACE MAY LEAD TO REDUCTION OF US PRESENCE IN
INDO-PACIFIC AND MAY TURN BALANCE OF POWER IN FAVOUR OF CHINA: Another possible game-changer could be the fallout of the
much-heralded U.S.-North Korea summit. If, as Mr. Trump has hinted, peace in
the Korean peninsula leads to reduced American military presence in the region,
it would dramatically change the balance of forces in the Asia-Pacific in
favour of China. This would transform Eurasian dynamics, with an inevitable
impact on SCO.
P.S.
Raghavan, a former diplomat, is Convenor of the National Security Advisory
Board. The views expressed are personal
XXX
1.
Aim
of SCO was to ensure that liberal democracy could not gain ground in
these countries
2.
Real
objective of SCO is counterbalancing the activities of the United States
and NATO in Central Asia
3.
SCO
as a political IGO will smoothen roll out of BRI and rise of China
