On Saturday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and
President Xi Jinping met for the 14th time in four years. Is that an
unusual frequency in leadership level meetings between the two nations?
The traditional bureaucratic
equivalence between Indian Prime Ministers and Chinese Premiers has changed in recent
years as the Indian Prime Minister has engaged with the Chinese President — a
reflection of the power dynamic that places both leaders at the executive head
of their governments.
RITUAL OF MEETING ON SIDELINES OF EACH SUMMIT: Prime
Minister Modi and President Xi have not missed any major multilateral summit in
the last four years — the G20, East Asia and ASEAN Summits,
BRICS, and now the SCO. Whenever they have been in the same room, they have
agreed to meet on the sidelines of the summit. One crucial meeting was a very
brief encounter at last year’s G20 Summit in Hamburg, Germany, where the two
leaders broke the ice on Doklam and asked officials to talk and resolve the
crisis.
The fluid global situation,
especially the unpredictability
of the Donald Trump administration, has probably nudged the two leaders
into greater and more frequent engagement than they might have pursued
ordinarily.
It is also important to note that
the two countries have increasingly had close encounters and conflicting
interests in many parts of the world, and across issues — and they realise the
importance of constant dialogue at a high level. Modi has demonstrated a clear
individual style of engagement, and world leaders have responded positively to his
initiative. Both Modi and Xi see themselves as strong leaders of their
countries and peoples, and their personal engagement is a crucial aspect of the
bilateral engagement on all outstanding issues.
KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM WUHAN AND QINGDAO: In Wuhan in
April, Modi and Xi gave strategic guidance to their armies to build trust. In
Qingdao, they decided to strengthen their communication. How should this be
read?
The two-and-half month-long
border standoff last year at the India-Bhutan-China trijunction at Doklam
underlined the need to have stronger communication channels between the two
militaries. While the incident was resolved through diplomacy, later
analyses on both sides concluded that a more robust communication between the
militaries could have helped avoid escalation. South Block had drawn a similar
conclusion after the Chumar faceoff in September 2014, when President Xi
was visiting.
At Wuhan, the two sides agreed
to give “strategic guidance” to their militaries asking them to follow SOPs,
and not escalate matters. The SoPs are outlined in several documents,
including the 2013 Border Defence Cooperation Agreement signed by the Manmohan Singh government.
Following the strategic guidance,
the two sides were keen to have stronger communication through phonecalls,
meetings, visits by Defence Ministers and officials — and to work on ways
to enhance trust and build confidence.
Also, Xi is now the numero uno
leader in the communist party, China’s government, and the country, and has
greater control over the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) than ever before. His
position is comparable only to Chairman Mao Zedong’s, and
“strategic guidance” from his office carries a lot of weight.
With India in its election year
and China focussed on the US and on its eastern borders, both sides appear keen
to avoid incidents that divert resources, attention and energy to the Line of
Actual Control. Wuhan and Qingdao can be seen as an attempt to keep the LAC
quiet in the short-term.
So has the possibility of
border skirmishes been reduced?
Officials have maintained that
the discussions in Qingdao were underpinned by the “Wuhan spirit”,
indicating greater understanding between the two leaders.
CHINESE LEADERSHIP HAS BETTER CONTROL OVER ITS MILITARY’S
ACTION: Since the Chinese President appears to be in control of the
PLA — he has, in recent months, asked senior PLA officers to be loyal
and obedient to the Communist Party of China (CPC) and, in the last five
years, the Central Military Commission (CMC) has strived to build an army
that upholds the CPC’s absolute leadership over the PLA — there is an
expectation that his orders will be followed.
CHUMAR AND DOKLAM MAY BE THE DOING OF FIELD LEVEL
OFFICIALS: Some analysts believe that Chumar and Doklam were done by
local-level field commanders, and did not have sanction from Beijing. Those in
the establishment who agree with this analysis feel that an understanding
between the top leaders would mean less turbulent times on the border. But many
Indian analysts also quote Deng Xiaoping’s famous line, “Hide your capacities
and bide your time”, and advocate caution.
What is the significance of
the hydrological data sharing pact with China?
HYDRO DATA SHARING FROZE AFTER DALAI LAMA’S VISIT TO
ARUNACHAL: After the Dalai Lama’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh in April
last year, Beijing had warned of adverse consequences for China’s
relationship with India. From May 15 onwards, the data sharing agreement
between India and China on the Brahmaputra stood frozen. The Indian side
raised the issue several times, even during the Doklam standoff, but there was
no thaw in the freeze on information-sharing.
HYDRO DATA VERY CRUCIAL FOR FLOOD MANAGEMENT: This
data is crucial to prevent flooding in the Northeast. The pact will hopefully
enable stricter adherence to the protocol of sharing information. As the lower
riparian country, India (along with Bangladesh), stands to gain significantly
from a more robust data-sharing mechanism.
In the bigger picture, what do
summits like Qingdao and Wuhan mean?
Wuhan marked the “reset” of
the Sino-Indian relationship — it was preceded by the government’s
diktat to officials to not attend the Dalai Lama’s events — and there is
satisfaction in South Block that the understandings reached in April have been
followed through.
2018 IS THE YEAR OF RESET AFTER A WASTED 2017: So
far, the attempt to put the relationship on an even keel has been successful.
There have been meetings at all levels — from NSA to Foreign Minister
and Foreign Secretary — and the momentum is expected to pick up. Many in the
establishment feel that 2017 was either a “wasted” or a “missed” opportunity,
and 2018 is the year of the reset, and of trying to bring the relationship
back on track. A slew of visits, meetings and interactions will take place
through the year, and will continue into the next year — if all goes well on
the border, or any other issue does not derail the process.
INDIA CHINA MAYBE ON TRACT TO INSTITUTIONALISE AN ANNUAL
SUMMIT: For Xi to come to India for an informal summit in 2019 is a new
and smart way to institutionalise an “annual summit” between the top leaders of
the two countries. At present, India has annual summits only with two
countries — Japan and Russia. The India-China informal annual summit, if
institutionalised, will be the first with a neighbour, and is pregnant with
opportunities. It could be expected to strengthen “strategic
communication” between the countries, irrespective of the political party
in power. The risk for Modi is that a speedbump of any kind — another border
skirmish, an escalation of differences over Belt and Road, or something to do
with Pakistan — may be politically damaging in an election year.
Credit: Indian Express Explained (http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/narendra-modi-xi-jinping-meet-sco-summit-china-qingdao-bilateral-meeting-5212172/)
Reach Us
if you face difficulty in understanding the above article.
No comments:
Post a Comment