5 Reason Why Climate Change Hurts India More

1. HSBC Report: A new report from HSBC has categorized India as being the country most vulnerable to climate change — that is, the country most vulnerable to climatic changes, future extreme weather events, response options, and energy transition risks.
2. Tropical Location: A number of Indian States have experienced extreme heatwaves in the past three years, and the nation’s capital recently recorded a temperature of 48°C, its hottest day in 21 years.
3. Long Coastline: India’s exposure to climate hazards is heightened by the location of its vast coastline in the eye of the storm, across the Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
4. Population Distribution: It also has a high population density located in harm’s way. For instance, Kerala, which experienced intense floods and landslides in 2018 and 2019, is among the States with the highest density.
5. Monsoon Dependent Economy: Increasing temperatures and changing seasonal rainfall patterns are aggravating droughts and hurting agriculture across the country.

GK: Understanding Rainfall Pattern in IVC (HISTORY)

The Indus Valley Civilisation is one of the earliest known instances of organised urban human settlements. It flourished in the northwestern parts of the Indian subcontinent, in the region around north Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, and more prominently in the areas around the Indus river in Pakistan, for about 1,500 years between 3000 and 1500 BC. Its most glorious phase was the 600-700 years between 2600 and 1900 BC, which saw the emergence of some of the most modern and mature townships of that era, like Harappa, Mohenjo-daro, and Rakhigarhi.

The decline and disintegration of the Indus Valley Civilisation are attributed to several reasons — climatic, tectonic, and even social. There are varying degrees of evidence to support these. Most scientists and archaeologists agree that the availability of abundant water was the most crucial enabler for the sustenance of the civilisation in this region, just as it is seen in most other ancient civilisations as well. Presence of prominent buried channels between Fatehabad and Tohana in Haryana, and the concentration of archaeological mounds on its bank suggest the dependence of Indus people on a perennial source of water.

There are plenty of geological and climatic studies that point to good rainfall patterns in that area in those times. There are a few examples of counter-evidence as well, some that show that the civilisation flourished mostly in drier times. A group of geologists, archaeologists and climate scientists from India, United Kingdom and France have recently published fresh evidence in Nature Scientific Report that shows that Indus Valley Civilisation was at its peak in the wettest phase.

These scientists, led by Yama Dixit of Godwin Laboratory for Palaeoclimate Research at the Department of Earth Sciences in Cambridge University, have managed to establish a high resolution chronology of the wet and dry phases in the area between 9000 and 2000 BC, and show that the peak of the civilisation almost coincided with the wet phase when monsoon intensified for about 600 years between 5,000 and 4,400 years from now (about 3000 to 2400 BC). The dispersal of the civilisation also coincides with the onset of the dry phase in the region.

The group relied on the studies of gypsum deposits at the site of a now-dried-up lake near Karsandi village in the Nohar-Bhadra area of northern Rajasthan, which is on the margins of the Thar desert. Such palaeo-lakes — there are many in this area —have been the subject of previous investigations as well, but this is the first time that the scientists have been able to propose a detailed chronology of rainfall variation in those areas having a bearing on the expansion and contraction of Indus urbanism. The Karsandi palaeo-lake is about 120 km northeast of Rakhigarhi, an important Indus settlement that has seen some exciting excavations very recently, and near Kalibangan and Karanpura, also important centres of the Indus civilisation.

Gypsum, chemically calcium sulphate, is one of the common evaporites — the mineral deposits that remain after the evaporation of saline water — found in the palaeo-lakes in these areas. Its chemical analysis gives scientists some good indications about the source and composition of water in these lakes and the environmental condition at the time of precipitation. For example, if the deposit is pure gypsum, it can be an indication of no or very less rainfall in the region. This is because the surrounding areas in the region are all very sandy, and if there was rainfall, the rains would have brought sand to the lake, and the deposits would have a mixture of gypsum and sand. Similarly, pure sand can be indicative of very good rainfall.

The scientists collected samples of different layers of gypsum and studied them in detail. They carried out AMS carbon-dating of tiny ostracod fossils to assess the ages of different layers, and measured the isotopic composition of oxygen and deuterium in gypsum from these layers. Based on their studies, they have been able to propose a specific timeline for rainfall variation in this region. They have inferred that this region, northern part of Rajasthan, was largely dry till about 11,200 years ago, that is until about 9000 BC. But between 9000 and 3000 BC, there was substantial precipitation in the area, making it conducive for human settlements. The scientists say a further intensification of monsoon was witnessed between 3000 and 2400 BC, after which another dry phase is supposed to have begun similar to the modern condition.

This timeline almost coincides with the rise and fall of the Indus civilisation. The evidence from Karsandi lake, therefore, strongly suggests that there were areas that were receiving favourable rainfall in the period leading up to the development of urban centres along the northern part of the Thar desert.“Our findings add to the evidence that climatic reasons could have been one of the main factors behind the sustenance and decline of the great cities of Indus civilisation. Of course, much more work needs to be done in this and many other areas of this region to bolster this evidence,” Saini, the former Director of Geological Survey of India, said. The study has implications for modern society as well, which is witnessing climate change and perceptible variations in precipitation and temperature.

Credit: Indian Express Explained

GK: Understanding Solar Radiation Management Geoengineering (ECOLOGY / ENVIRONMENT)

Scientists in developing nations plan to step up research into dimming sunshine to curb climate change, hoping to judge if a man-made chemical sunshade would be less risky than a harmful rise in global temperatures.

Research into “solar geo-engineering”, which would mimic big volcanic eruptions that can cool the Earth by masking the sun with a veil of ash, is now dominated by rich nations and universities such as Harvard and Oxford.

“Developing countries must lead on solar geo-engineering research,” the researchers wrote in a commentary published on April 3 in Nature. “The overall idea (of solar geo-engineering) is pretty crazy but it is gradually taking root in the world of research,” lead author Atiq Rahman, head of the Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies, told Reuters by telephone.

The solar geo-engineering studies would be helped by a new $400,000 fund from the Open Philanthropy Project, a foundation backed by Dustin Moskovitz, a co-founder of Facebook, and his wife, Cari Tuna, they wrote. The fund could help scientists in developing nations study regional impacts of solar geo-engineering such as on droughts, floods or monsoons, said Andy Parker, a co-author and project director of the Solar Radiation Management Governance Initiative.

Sulphur spray

Rahman said the academics were not taking sides about whether geo-engineering would work. Among proposed ideas, planes might spray clouds of reflective sulphur particles high in the Earth's atmosphere. “The technique is controversial, and rightly so. It is too early to know what its effects would be: it could be very helpful or very harmful,” they wrote.

A U.N. panel of climate experts, in a leaked draft of a report about global warming due for publication in October, is sceptical about solar geo-engineering, saying it may be ”economically, socially and institutionally infeasible.” Among risks, the draft obtained by Reuters says it might disrupt weather patterns, could be hard to stop once started, and might discourage countries from making a promised switch from fossil fuels to cleaner energies.

Still, Rahman said most developed nations had “abysmally failed” so far in their pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions, making radical options to limit warming more attractive. The world is set for a warming of three degrees Celsius or more above pre-industrial times, he said, far above a goal of keeping a rise in temperatures “well below” 2C under the 2015 Paris Agreement among almost 200 nations.

Credit: The Hindu

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SRMGI: The Solar Radiation Management Governance Initiative is an international, NGO-driven project that seeks to expand the global conversation around the governance of SRM geoengineering research.

SRMGI runs engagement workshops in developing countries, trying to build capacity for local experts, NGOs, public and policymakers to engage with the issues SRM raises.  We always work with local partners, including NGOs, universities, science academies and even a national science museum.  To date we have run 17 workshops in 14 different countries, including Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Jamaica, Kenya, Pakistan, the Philippines, Senegal, South Africa and Thailand. We have also run side sessions at the Biennial General Meeting of the Caribbean Academy of Science and at the Pacific Climate Conference 2018.

SRM: Solar radiation management (SRM or solar geoengineering) is a theoretical approach to reducing some of the impacts of climate change by reflecting a small amount of inbound sunlight back out into space. It is in the early stages of research, but it is already a controversial topic. It is clear that SRM has the potential to be very helpful or very damaging for those people and species most threatened by climate change, but it is very unclear what its full effects would be.

SRM would not directly reduce concentrations greenhouse gases, and therefore numerous expert reports have concluded that it could never be a complete solution to global warming and does not represent a substitute for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. However, they have also concluded that it might be able to reduce some climate risks to which Earth is already committed, though even for this more limited purpose whether it can be net positive to humanity and the environment is unclear.

For instance, if it could be made to work, SRM would be the only known method for quickly stopping the rise in global temperatures. It could even be used to cool the planet, should that ever be deemed necessary. As such it might be able to reduce some damages while humanity decarbonizes the global economy, or it might offer a method for dealing with some of the climate risks associated with those greenhouse gases that have already been emitted to the atmosphere. The uncertainties around the effects of SRM are large though, and there is not nearly enough evidence yet available to evaluate whether use of SRM would increase or decrease the impacts of climate change, and where.

How Solar Geo-Engineering may work?

GK: Understanding Kigali Amendment to Montreal Protocol (ENVIRONMENT / ECOLOGY)

The world wants to ensure that the continuing rise in Earth’s average temperatures, as a result of global warming, doesn’t go beyond 2 degrees Celsius compared to average temperatures in pre-industrial times — that is, around the 1850s. That, science says, is essential to prevent “catastrophic and irreversible” impacts of climate change. A number of small island countries like Maldives, Fiji and the Marshall Islands — and even non-island countries like Bangladesh — have, however, been arguing for years that this is not good enough; that they face the possibility of being submerged under rising seas even if temperature rise is kept to 2 degrees Celsius, and the effort, therefore, should be to keep the rise to within 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Accordingly, the Paris Agreement on climate change, finalised last year, seeks to ensure that the Earth’s warming does not go beyond 2 degrees Celsius, while continuing efforts to keep it within 1.5 degrees. Achieving this target requires monumental global action. Every economic activity across the world — energy, transportation, industry, agriculture, and more — is in for overhaul. Consumption must be reduced. Efficiency needs to be improved at all levels. Major lifestyle and behavioural changes will be needed.

And all this, and much more, needs to happen simultaneously, over a prolonged 50-70-year period. Because any one, or even a smaller set of interventions, will bring only minuscule improvements.

It is in this context that the significance of the agreement reached in Kigali needs to be seen. More than 190 countries, after a weeklong meeting in the picturesque capital of Rwanda, decided to phase out the use of HFCs, short for hydrofluorocarbons, over the next 30 years. This single, relatively easy and painless intervention has the potential to prevent a rise of about 0.5 degrees Celsius in global temperatures by the end of the century. No other intervention comes even close in terms of returns offered, ease of implementation, or cost impacts. The HFC phaseout is not just the lowest hanging fruit on climate action, but also the most rewarding.

The danger from HFCs

HFCs, ironically, had come into use to solve another environmental problem. They came in to replace the CFCs, or chlorofluorocarbons, gases that were being used extensively in the airconditioning and refrigerant industries, and also for some other applications, in the 1970s and 1980s. CFCs were found to be primarily responsible for a hole in the ozone layer of the atmosphere, which could have dangerous health impacts. In 1987, the world negotiated the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer to phase these chemicals out. The Protocol became effective in 1989, and in the next 25 years, has succeeded in eliminating, almost completely, the use of CFCs. The HFCs, which were just as effective for industrial applications, replaced the CFCs all but seamlessly.

It was realised only later that while HFCs did not deplete the ozone layer — which, incidentally, has been repaired considerably in the last quarter century — these were very powerful greenhouse gases, much more dangerous than carbon dioxide, which is mainly blamed for global warming. A set of 19 HFCs are used in different applications and many of them are several hundreds or thousands of times more potent than CO2.

Despite their high global warming potential (GWP), these gases currently account for a very small fraction of the total greenhouse gas emissions in the world, less than 5%, mainly because they are used in very few sectors of industry. In India, they constitute less than 1% of total emissions. However, these happen to be the fastest growing greenhouse gases because of the rapid growth of the airconditioning industry, particularly in developing countries like India. It is estimated that if this is not checked, these gases would account for 19% of global emissions by the year 2050.

Amending Montreal Protocol

While the world was attempting, over the past decade, to finalise a global agreement on climate change to cut emissions of all greenhouse gases, including HFCs, it was realised that HFCs needed to be treated on a higher priority. Suggestions to phase out HFCs through the already-successful Montreal Protocol were first made some 7 years ago. But the Protocol, a legally-binding agreement, was meant to deal with only ozone-depleting substances — which HFCs were not. So, it was proposed to amend the Montreal Protocol to enable it to phase out HFCs as well.

A few countries, including India, were initially not comfortable with the idea of including HFCs in the Montreal Protocol. They argued that the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on climate change, and whatever new arrangement succeeded it, should continue to deal with HFCs as all other greenhouse gases. There was an important reason for this. The Montreal Protocol seeks the elimination of harmful chemicals by all its member countries, though on different time schedules. The Kyoto Protocol, on the other hand, requires only a set of developed countries to mandatorily accept emission reduction targets. Developing countries, if they reduced emissions, could receive ‘carbon credits’ and sell them in carbon markets to earn revenues. In fact, a few companies in India and China did earn millions by reducing one particular HFC, called HFC-23, which, incidentally, India decided to destroy at one go last week when the Kigali meeting was on.

Baselines and freeze year

Once everyone agreed to use the Montreal Protocol to phase out HFCs, it came down to negotiating the details. Recognising the different situations in the developed and developing countries, the Protocol has always provided for a faster and early phasedown schedule of harmful substances for developed countries, and a slower and delayed one for developing countries.

Both sets of countries are assigned a ‘baseline year’ (or three-year period), and a ‘freeze year’. The production or consumption of the harmful substance, like HFC, in the baseline year (or the average of three-year period) serves as the baseline amount against which reductions are assigned in the phasedown schedule. The freeze year, which is a few years after the baseline period, is the time from when the use of the harmful chemical must begin to go below the average amounts used in the baseline period. The use of the chemical can grow between the baseline year and the freeze year, but must come down to at least baseline levels in the freeze year.

Most countries at the Kigali meeting were agreed on a 2011-13 baseline period for developed countries and a 2020-22 baseline for developing countries. However, India and some other countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq and Pakistan, were arguing for a later baseline period of 2024-26 for developing countries. A delayed baseline period would allow these countries to let their HFC use grow unrestrained for a few more years, giving them more headroom to start making reductions.

These countries also demanded a 2030 freeze year for developing countries. Others, mainly the United States, wanted the freeze year to be 2027.

The deal

After some last minute haggling in a bilateral meeting between India and the US, the final deal for amending the Montreal Protocol was struck. India, and its handful of supporters, agreed to advance their freeze year to 2028 while managing to get a 2024-26 baseline period. The other developing countries, including China, Brazil and South Africa, stuck to their earlier baseline period of 2020-22, and freeze year of 2024.

For the first time in the Montreal mechanism, developing countries got divided into two different groups with different phasedown schedules. The amendment, which will come into force in 2019, will ensure that the developed countries eliminate at least 85% of their HFCs from the baseline period of 2011-13 by the year 2036. The Chinese group of developing countries has the target of eliminating 80% of their 2020-22 baseline HFC use by the year 2045, while the Indian group will have to phase out 85% of their baseline HFCs by the year 2047.

Early estimates show that this amendment, though slightly weaker than imagined because of the split in developing countries, would still be able to achieve about 90% of the objective of preventing 0.5 degree-Celsius temperature rise.

Credit: Indian Express Explained

Op-Ed: Handling Heat Stress - The Hindu (06.03.18)

(Guidelines for Reader: Latest Op-Ed First; Verbatim Compilation of The Hindu Op-Ed; Best to read in the order of oldest to latest article to get a comprehensive understanding; Consider repetition to be revision)

(We are drowning in information and starving for wisdom. READ and develop a PERSPECTIVE!!)

High noon (06.03.18)

The India Meteorological Department’s forecast of above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures across the country during the pre-monsoon March-May period is a timely alert for State authorities to review their preparedness. Even a marginal rise above the normal will lead to enormous heat stress for millions of Indians, given the deprived conditions in which they live. Moreover, there are distinct groups at particular risk for health-related problems during a heat wave, such as senior citizens and people with pre-existing disease, mental illness or disability, which prevents them from being able to care for themselves. It is the responsibility of governments to ensure that community-level interventions are taken up to help vulnerable groups. The advent of hot weather this year is marked by temperatures rising between 1.6° Celsius and 5° C above normal in States such as Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh; other northern, central and eastern States also show a small increase from March 1. Of course, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and parts of Rayalaseema have begun the season with a slight decrease in minimum temperatures, and will possibly have less oppressive temperatures in coming weeks. For most other States, though, the summer of 2018 may pose a public health challenge, for which they must prepare with the experience gained during the many previous heat waves. One scientific estimate of annual mortality attributable to heat waves between 2010 and 2015 ranges between 1,300 and 2,500.

A spike in summer temperatures in India is not new, but some scientists contend that a half-degree rise in average temperature in recent decades has resulted in a higher probability of extreme heat waves and caused a lot of deaths. A heat event thus has serious implications for public health: it can lead to fatal heat stroke in a small percentage of people, while many more could encounter exhaustion, cramps and fainting. It is vital for governments to ensure that all stakeholders, including the health-care system, are prepared to deal with the phenomenon. The World Health Organisation recommends that countries adopt heat-health warning systems, including daily alerts to ensure that people are in a position to deal with adverse weather, starting with reduction of exposure. Water stress is a common and often chronic feature in many States: arrangements should be made to meet scarcity. There is some hope that the southwest monsoon this year will benefit from an expected moderate La Niña condition in the equatorial Pacific, marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperature. Taking the long-term view, India has to pursue mitigation of greenhouse gases vigorously, since there is a perceived link between increases in average temperature caused by climate change and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

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Older Op-Eds

Hotter, longer, deadlier summers (21.04.16)

Climate change is expected to cause an > increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. For India, 2015 was the third hottest year on record (since 1901) and the > heat claimed over 2,000 lives. This year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued warnings for northwest and central India (Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, eastern Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Odisha and Jharkhand) about heatwaves happening sooner than in previous years. Further, government schools have been shut down in Kolkata, parts of West Bengal, Odisha, and Madhya Pradesh on account of heatwaves.

Adverse health outcomes (hospitalisations or death) are a complex interaction of frequency, duration and intensity of a heatwave and population-level factors, which include acclimatisation to the temperature profile of certain geography, poverty, lack of shelter, pre-existing disease, age (children or elderly) and access to health facilities. In addition to heat stroke, extreme temperatures can exacerbate pre-existing cardiovascular and respiratory illness.

The days ahead

A joint study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad and Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar found that about 345 districts in India (700 million people) are following a trajectory where average temperatures are likely to rise more than 2°C by the end of the century. The same study also finds that over the next three decades, India may experience increase in annual mean air temperatures of 1°C-1.5°C and substantial increases in night-time temperatures. Higher night-time temperatures are correlated with increased incidence of heat-related illness.

Findings from the first Global Climate Change Risk Assessment (a joint study by CEEW, Harvard University, Tsinghua University and the U.K. Foreign and Commonwealth Office) highlight that hotter summers make it extremely unsafe for citizens, especially labourers, to undertake heavy outdoor work. Of course, there remain associated impacts such as higher risks of crop failure. Concomitant consequences of farmer financial distress, poverty traps and, in extreme cases, suicides cannot be overstated.

Adaptation measures

If hotter, longer and deadlier summers are to be the new normal under a changing climate, proactive adaptation measures are required. This implies policy intervention and coordination across three sectors — health, water and power.

First, scale up heat-health warning systems (HHWS). At their core, such warning systems include providing weather forecasts in advance, issuing warnings to people, providing readiness of emergency response systems, and preparing doctors and health facilities to handle a sudden influx of patients. Warnings facilitate people in taking appropriate actions against heat-related harm. Though the IMD does issue heat warnings, often the coordination with emergency response systems and health facilities is missing.

Globally, studies show that implementing HHWS results in fewer deaths. The most quoted example is that of France where 4,400 deaths were avoided due to HHWS during the 2006 heatwave. Closer home, Ahmedabad, Nagpur and Odisha have made pioneering efforts in this direction. These systems need to be expanded to other cities across the country.

Second, expedite the rollout of the heat-health warning systems that was launched last year. Preventing temperature-related morbidity and mortality could be a key programme under this mission.

Third, ensure an adequate supply of water. Dehydration is a key outcome of heat exposure which can cascade into life-threatening conditions and ultimately death. Timely access to drinking water can help mitigate this escalation. In areas where heat extremes coincide with water scarcity, the risk of heat-related illness remains highest. Areas like Latur, Osmanabad and Beed, which are already experiencing acute water shortages, could face large casualties if hit by heatwaves. Water is also required for electricity production that helps provide access to cooler environments through use of fans and air conditioners. Therefore, strategic planning in the water sector is of paramount importance to protect human lives.

Fourth, provide reliable electricity for adequate duration. Access to cool environments remains the mainstay of preventing heat stress. Use of fans, air conditioners or functioning of medical centres is contingent upon electricity supply. Further, many communities depend on electricity to draw groundwater for drinking. This requires planning to meet peak loads in summer, when power outages are most common. In rural areas, where electricity access is a challenge, supplementing power supply of primary health centres with solar-based systems should be undertaken. Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Tripura have already deployed such systems.

Finding policy alignment and coordination across these sectors remains a daunting, yet much needed exercise. The romance of the seasons may be lost in the years to come. Lives need not be.

Hem H. Dholakia is a Research Associate at CEEW, a not-for-profit policy research institution in New Delhi. Email: hem.dholakia@ceew.in

Coping with summer (03.04.17)

Torrid summers, when the mercury soars 4°C to 6°C above the average and produces heatwaves in several States between April and June, may become more frequent in coming years. Not only will there be more hot days, the spells of heat stress sweeping across much of India are likely to grow longer. The scientific consensus is that heatwaves will grow stronger and expand their geographical spread in the south, influenced by the sea surface temperature in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. With rising greenhouse gases, their impact can only intensify. Though the number of people dying due to heat stress last year was half of the previous year’s toll of 2,040, the need to evolve detailed action plans at the level of States, districts and cities is now critical. It is encouraging that the National Disaster Management Authority is guiding States, in partnership with the India Meteorological Department, to evolve heat action plan protocols. The response to distress caused by excessive heat has to be both speedy and professional. Europe upgraded its preparedness to handle a crisis after a crippling heatwave in 2003 killed thousands of people, over 14,800 of them in France alone. In the Indian context, crop failures and disruption of electricity supply due to sudden peak demand are common. People experience dehydration, heat cramps and deadly heatstroke. The elderly are particularly at risk, since higher temperatures affect blood viscosity and raise the risk of thrombosis.

Better meteorological forecasting can provide an early warning about a coming hot spell during the summer window. This gives the NDMA and the States sufficient opportunity to launch an action protocol: to inform the public as soon as the temperature crosses the threshold fixed by the IMD, advise on precautionary measures, and aid those who are most vulnerable, such as older adults, farm workers and those pursuing outdoor vocations. Ahmedabad, for instance, drew up a city-level action plan in the wake of its 46.8°C heatwave of 2010 with support from public health institutions. Preparing the health system to identify symptoms of heat stress and providing treatment through urban health centres is one intervention it decided upon. Reviewing school timetables, rescheduling work timings to cooler hours, making water widely available and reserving religious sites and libraries as cooling centres were others. European and American policy responses, such as creating green and blue urban spaces to provide tree shade and higher moisture, as well as housing design that cuts heat through the albedo effect of reflected solar energy, hold universal appeal. Some of these passive defences are actually integral to vernacular practices and will serve everyone well. It is essential to study the efficacy of heat action plans and share the results across States to achieve best practices.

The urban heat island effect (19.12.17)

Rapid and unplanned urbanisation of cities and concomitant reduction in vegetation results in increased rise in temperature compared to non-urban areas. To explain how this happens, a team of researchers from IIT-Bhubaneswar studied the warming of Bhubaneswar, a tier-2 city, due to rapid urbanisation compared to non-urban areas that surround it. The study was recently published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ,India Section A: Physical Sciences.

Rapid urbanisation combined with changes in land use pattern between 2000 and 2014 led to about 1.8°C warming of Bhubaneswar compared with surrounding non-urban areas (called the urban heat island effect), the researchers say. The team, which was led by Debadatta Swain from the School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences at IIT-Bhubaneswar, found that increase in urbanisation has been rapid at 83% in the last 15 years. This has led to about 89% decrease in dense vegetation, about 2% decrease in water bodies and nearly 83% decrease in crop fields during the same period. Decrease in crop areas could either be due to urbanisation or fields remaining fallow. These changes have led to increase in the urban heat island effect. The central part of the city has not witnessed much change in land cover, while the adjoining areas have witnessed major changes due to expansion of the city, leading to the warming of the city.

“Bhubaneswar was once well covered by three forests. The 1999 Odisha super cyclone destroyed many trees, and many trees have been cut for road expansion. Today, only a very small percentage of forest cover is remaining,” says Debadatta Swain. All the losses mentioned negatively impact the thermal and radiative properties of the surface and make cities hotter than surrounding non-urban areas. With heavily built-up areas and concrete structures, most cities in India and in the world are warmer than surrounding non-urban areas due to the urban heat island effect. For instance, Delhi is 4-12°C warmer due to the urban heat island effect.

“With proper planning we can minimise the impacts. So urban dwellers may not suffer from excessive changes to heat and rainfall patterns,” says V. Vinoj, one of the co-authors of the paper.

(All of the above articles have been taken straight from The Hindu. We owe it all to them. This is just an effort to consolidate opinions expressed in The Hindu in a subject-wise manner.)

Bamboo Industry in India: How can it be developed?

Bamboo Industry in India: How can it be developed?

UPSC General Studies: Paper I: Key Natural Resource: Bamboo

Question: ‘India has the world’s largest natural base of bamboo, yet China controls the world market in this natural resource.’ Outline the uses of bamboo. How has the above situation come to be what it is and how should it be redressed?

Backgrounder: (This is just for the sake of putting things in a perspective and not for the actual answer)

India, not China, is the world’s largest natural repository of bamboo: approximately 11,361 sq.km of it, compared to China’s area of 5,444 sq.km. Most of India’s bamboo is in the north-east, some in Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and in the Western Ghats.

Yet India holds a mere 4% of the world market on bamboo.

China’s innovations in bamboo have certainly been manifold. It controls over 83% of the world market, and has seen its industry grow from $10 billion to a $30 billion turnover industry employing 7.7 million people and reforesting over 3 million hectares of degraded land.

IBNAR: INBAR (International Network for Bamboo and Rattan) is infusing bamboo into five of the Paris Agreement’s 29 clauses through Articles 5, 7, 10, 11 and 12, all dealing in sustainable forestry and renewable energy.

Pointers that will help tackle the above question:

Uses of bamboo

Bamboo’s benefits are immense—it restores degraded soils, is good for afforestation and water conservation and thereby in climate change mitigation. It has myriad uses ranging from high-end construction materials to producing biomass fuel with potential for further products, thereby enhancing not just rural livelihoods but an industry, all contributing to the overall economy.

What’s powered China ahead?

IBNAR India and China: Interestingly, INBAR was founded by an Indian-origin Canadian scientist, Cherla Sastry, in 1983 through Canada’s IDRC (international development research), then having several other Indian “bamboo scientists”. The initiative set up some centres within forestry institutes in India, but got bogged down by “all kinds of parliamentary questions”, said Sastry over the phone, when it came to establishing INBAR in India. “There is continuity in China,” says Sastry, along with cooperation, foresight and their own money.

What’s kept India behind?

Bamboo a tree or a grass? Forest Rights Act of 2006 allows access to NTFPs but still restricts it as an industry. But the Forest Act of 1927 said bamboo was a tree, thus excluding local communities from harvesting bamboo inside protected areas as non-timber forest produce (NTFP). (This provision remains unchanged in 1980 Forest Act.

Lack of cohesive policy: Bamboo is also controlled by the rural development and the agriculture ministries. None of these ministries have as yet a policy that is cohesive to all.

Way Ahead

Adopt state best practices: there has been an environment ministry directive urging states to consider bamboo as an NTFP and a Supreme Court order categorizing bamboo as such, the ambiguity of our current laws has left it to the political will of states to decide. The result of this is a few discrete pockets of success in communities in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Odisha mainly.

Utilize funds from existing schemes: bamboo could be promoted with great effect in the 10 million hectare afforestation scheme under India’s climate change mitigation plans, while the compensatory afforestation management's current funds of Rs 42,000 crore offer even more potential.

Related Article

19.09.16: Gadkari blasts forest officials for corruption (Related to Bamboo in Vidarbha)
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/nagpur/Gadkari-blasts-forest-dept-for-corruption/articleshow/54396164.cms

G-20: Origin, Performance Analysis and Relevance

G-20

UPSC GENERAL STUDIES: PAPER II (Important International institutions, agencies and fora- their structure, mandate.)

Table of Content:

Origin of G-20

Performance Analysis

Important Issues that can be Discussed

Utility of G-20

How to ensure better functioning?

Has the G20 lost its way, outlived its usefulness? Would it be more institutionally efficient to revert to other regional groupings that have overlapping conversations on these very subjects? It may well be time to re-examine the G20’s purpose and, if necessary, recast its vision and mission entirely……

Origin of G-20

The G-20, which emerged as a major global economic forum in the wake of the great financial crisis of 2008, was supposed to bring about a coordination of the economic policies of a group of countries whose economies together account for more than four-fifths of world gross domestic product, aimed at promoting global economic growth and guarding against the rise of protectionism.

G 20: Performance Analysis

Distressfully, even after eight years, it has achieved neither of these two aims.

Global economic growth is stuttering.

Rise of protectionism has almost been written off as an inevitable eventuality: As per the WTO, trade restrictions have now reached their highest in the developed market economies of the G-20 since 2008. Why is this happening? The triad economies (i.e. the USA, Western Europe and Japan are bent on preventing any further advance of the Chinese economy based on the engine of low cost exports.)

G-20 Hangzhou Summit, China (2016): Performance Analysis

Comparison of progress in 2008 to that in 2016: Numerous low-key objectives shared by multiple G20 members, such as strengthening enforcement against international tax avoidance and advancing cooperation on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting, certainly got a shot in the arm from this G20 gathering. Yet, there is no comparison between the patchy and vague nature of progress in these smaller goals to the collaboratively evolved financial regulation architecture that emerged from the ashes of the 2008 meltdown and put the brakes on excessive risk-taking by banks. It would have been institutionally efficient to revert to specific and regional groupings that have overlapping conversations on these very subjects.

Forum used by leaders to raise their pet concerns:

Xi Jinping of China argued for consensus on “structural reforms” pertaining to cross-border investment norms.

American counterpart Barack Obama underlined the need for more cooperation within the grouping to tackle issues such as income inequality and tax avoidance.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi called on the member states to fight back terrorism by imposing sanctions on terror-sponsoring countries.

Dichotomy between stated and real agenda of G-20 2016: Though their narratives were framed within the context of resolving “common structural issues”, they did little to actually further this objective. The communiqué issued at the end of the Hangzhou G-20 summit tried to give the impression that the G-20 leaders had committed themselves to “usher(ing) in a new era of global growth,” but clearly, Washington, Brussels and Tokyo were more concerned about cutting China’s steel industry down to size.

Issues that could have been raised

Monetary Policy: The G20 could have made a strong case for central banks to at least acknowledge their international responsibilities instead of only catering to their domestic mandates.

Fiscal Policy: Similarly on fiscal policy, we are still not sure whether a fiscal stimulus initiated by governments (with low aggregate demand) to inject more liquidity necessarily helps in spurring investment or spending. Evidence from most G20 countries (through consumption and investment data) indicates that a fiscal push alone (combined with lower interest rates) may not spur aggregate spending.

Greater coordination on tax avoidance issues: This is one area in which the G20 has already tried to cobble together some form of a consensus, but issues related to the creation of a less disproportionate tax structure require more attention. Rationalising the tax structure will help limit capital movement by tax-avoiding corporations to countries where taxes have been deliberately kept at low levels, allowing for an oligopolisation of sectoral markets globally. A good example here is the European Commission’s recent ruling on Apple Inc, according to which the corporation owes $14.5 billion to Ireland in taxes.

Utility of G-20

G-20 countries account for around four fifth of global GDP. G-20 by virtue of being a smaller group should try and come out with a coherent approach to solving problems faced by the global economy and then take this approach to other foras such as the EU, IMF, WTO and other bodies to take further the process of global coordination on important policies. Unless the G-20 does this, it will not be solving any real purpose except from being a talk-shop for leaders.

How to ensure the functioning of G-20 as per its utility?

Empirical method of setting the agenda of the meeting must be evolved.

Action-taken report should be submitted as to what progress has been made on the agenda discussed in the previous meetings, and what needs to be done going ahead.

Establishment of a permanent office may be considered to ensure that the coherence on policy issues achieved in the annual meeting gets reflected in the working of other specific foras.

Short Takes: On MDGs and SDGs

Short Takes: On MDGs and SDGs

UPSC GENERAL STUDIES: PAPER II & III

Table of Content

What is sustainable development?

How are the SDGs different from the MDGs?

Why are the SDGs so broad in comparison to the MDGs?

What are the elements underpinning the SDGs?

Evaluation of progress made by India on MDGs

Challenge in the implementation of SDGs

Aiming at global systemic reform, the first seven Sustainable Development Goals are an extension of the MDGs; goals 8, 9 and 10 cover aspects such as inclusiveness and jobs, infrastructure and industrialisation; and distribution; and the final set of the seven goals lay down the framework for sustainability spanning urbanisation; consumption and production; climate change; resources and environment; peace and justice; and the means of implementation as well as global partnership.

What is sustainable development?

Sustainable development has been defined as development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

Sustainable development calls for concerted efforts towards building an inclusive, sustainable and resilient future for people and planet.

For sustainable development to be achieved, it is crucial to harmonize three core elements: economic growth, social inclusion and environmental protection. These elements are interconnected and all are crucial for the well-being of individuals and societies.

Eradicating poverty in all its forms and dimensions is an indispensable requirement for sustainable development. To this end, there must be promotion of sustainable, inclusive and equitable economic growth, creating greater opportunities for all, reducing inequalities, raising basic standards of living, fostering equitable social development and inclusion, and promoting integrated and sustainable management of natural resources and ecosystems.

How are the SDGs different from the MDGs?

More Holistic: The 17 SDGs with 169 targets are broader in scope and will go further than the MDGs by addressing the root causes of poverty and the universal need for development that works for all people. The goals will cover the three dimensions of sustainable development: economic growth, social inclusion and environmental protection.

New & Critical Areas Covered: Building on the success and momentum of the MDGs, the new global goals will cover more ground, with ambitions to address inequalities, economic growth, decent jobs, cities and human settlements, industrialization, oceans, ecosystems, energy, climate change, sustainable consumption and production, peace and justice.

Universal Application: The new SDGs are universal and apply to all countries, whereas the MDGs were intended for action in developing countries only.

Focus on Finance and Implementation:  A core feature of the SDGs is their strong focus on means of implementation—the mobilization of financial resources—capacity-building and technology, as well as data and institutions.

Much required emphasis on Climate Change: The new Goals recognize that tackling climate change is essential for sustainable development and poverty eradication. SDG 13 aims to promote urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.

Why are the Sustainable Development Goals so broad in 

comparison to the Millennium Development Goals, which were 

very specific?

Complexity of Problems require Broader Goals:

There are 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) with 169 targets. The complex challenges that exist in the world today demand that a wide range of issues be covered. It is also critical to address the root causes of the problems and not only the symptoms.

In contrast there were 8 Millennium Development Goals with 21 targets.

Wider consultation at draft stage:

The SDGs are the result of a negotiation process that involved the 193 UN Member States and also saw unprecedented participation of civil society and other stakeholders.

This led to the representation of a wide range of interests and perspectives. On the other hand, the MDGs were produced by a group of experts behind closed doors.

All Elements of Sustainable Development Targeted:

The SDGs are broad in scope because they address the interconnected elements of sustainable development: economic growth, social inclusion and environmental protection.

The MDGs focused primarily on the social agenda.

Universal Applicability:

The SDGs apply to all countries, developed and developing.

The MDGs targeted developing countries, particularly the poorest.

What are the elements underpinning the Sustainable 

Development Goals?

The Goals and targets will stimulate action over the next 15 years in areas of critical importance: people, planet, prosperity, peace and partnership.

People - to end poverty and hunger, in all their forms and dimensions, and to ensure that all human beings can fulfil their potential in dignity and equality and in a healthy environment.

Planet - to protect the planet from degradation, including through sustainable consumption and production, sustainably managing its natural resources and taking urgent action on climate change, so that it can support the needs of the present and future generations.

Prosperity - to ensure that all human beings can enjoy prosperous and fulfilling lives and that economic, social and technological progress occurs in harmony with nature.

Peace - to foster peaceful, just and inclusive societies free from fear and violence. There can be no sustainable development without peace and no peace without sustainable development.

Partnership - to mobilize the means required to implement this agenda through a revitalised global partnership for sustainable development, based on a spirit of strengthened global solidarity, focused in particular on the needs of the poorest and most vulnerable and with the participation of all countries, all stakeholders and all people.

Evaluation of progress made by India on MDGs:

The key targets for the MDGs were halving poverty, ensuring universal primary school enrolment, attaining gender parity, cutting maternal mortality rates by three-fourths, cutting child mortality by two-thirds and reducing incidence of HIV/AIDS, among others.

As per the official figures, India has managed to halve poverty rates from the 1990 levels, ensure gender parity in primary school enrolment, reversed incidence of HIV/AIDS, and reduced malaria and TB deaths.

On the environment front, India is one of the few countries that has reduced its carbon dioxide emissions in relation to its GDP. India emitted 0.65 kg of carbon dioxide per $1 of GDP in 1990, which fell to 0.53 kg in 2010.

However, India continues to lag behind in checking maternal mortality and child mortality to expected levels. It has failed to address prevalence of hunger as well. The failure to improve access to sanitation, with half of the country’s households lacking a latrine, remains a major concern as well.

Even in areas where India claims to be close to meeting its targets, such as reversing the incidence of malaria and TB, the disease burden continues to be high in terms of absolute numbers.

Objective Summary of Evaluation (From Economic Survey)

Positives:

India had made significant progress on the MDGs:

It has already achieved the target of gender parity in primary school enrolment.

Halved the proportion of population without access to clean drinking water.

Is on track on the poverty reduction target.

Negatives:

But it is lagging on targets for:

Achieving universal primary school enrolment.

Reducing child and infant mortality.

Improving access to adequate sanitation.

Challenge in the implementation of SDGs:

In comparison to the MDGs, the SDGs have very comprehensive targets and finding indicators for each of the 169 targets will be a challenge.

Moreover, financing and adequate monitoring mechanisms will pose other major challenges. Successful implementation of the Paris Agreement, the SDGs and the ambitious targets set out in the INDCs will require huge financial resources which cannot be met through budgetary sources alone. Leveraging private finance along with public finance, both international and national, will be critical.

Taking leads from its progress on the MDGs, India will have to prioritize its SDGs, as it will be difficult to target each goal.