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revision)
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Current
Op-Ed
Make
the neighbourhood first again (07.03.18)
Almost four years after Prime Minister Narendra Modi began
his term with a “Neighbourhood First” moment, by inviting leaders of all South
Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries to his swearing-in
ceremony, India’s neighbourhood policy is clearly adrift. New Delhi’s connect
with its South Asian neighbours is weaker than it has been for a very long
time.
A perfect storm?
The first problem is that for various reasons other
governments in the SAARC region are either not on ideal terms with New Delhi,
or facing political headwinds. In the Maldives, President Yameen Abdul Gayoom
has gone out of his way to challenge the Modi government, whether it is on his
crackdown on the opposition, invitations to China, or even breaking with New
Delhi’s effort to isolate Pakistan at SAARC. In Nepal, the K.P. Sharma Oli
government is certainly not India’s first choice, and Kathmandu’s invitation to
the Pakistani Prime Minister this week confirms the chill. And no matter which
party is in power in Pakistan, it is difficult to see Delhi pushing for
official dialogue, especially with the military on the ascendant once again. In
other parts of the neighbourhood, where relations have been comparatively
better for the past few years, upcoming elections could turn the tables on
India. In Sri Lanka, the recent local election results that have gone the way
of the Mahinda Rajapaksa-backed party could be a portent of his future
re-election. In Afghanistan, Bhutan and Bangladesh, elections this year and the
next could pose challenges for India.
The next problem is the impact of China’s unprecedented
forays into each of these countries. Instead of telling the Nepal government to
sort out issues with India, for example, as it had in the past, China opened up
an array of alternative trade and connectivity options after the 2015
India-Nepal border blockade: from the highway to Lhasa, cross-border railway
lines to the development of dry ports. In Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, the Maldives
and Pakistan, China holds strategic real estate, which could also be fortified
militarily in the future. At present, it means China has a stake in the
internal politics of those countries. While China’s growing presence in
infrastructure and connectivity projects has been well-documented, its new
interest in political mediation must be watched more carefully as a result.
When China stepped in to negotiate a Rohingya refugee return agreement between
Myanmar and Bangladesh, or host a meeting of Afghanistan and Pakistan’s foreign
ministers to help calm tensions and bring both on board with the Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI) connection between them, or offer to mediate between the
Maldivian government and the opposition, it wasn’t just breaking with its past
policy of ignoring political dynamics in countries it invests in. Beijing is
now taking on a role New Delhi should have been in a better position to play,
and by refusing to play it Delhi is being shown up as unfeeling, partisan or,
worse, ineffective in the bargain.
The third issue is that the Modi government’s decision to
use hard power tactics in the neighbourhood has had a boomerang effect.
Theoretically, given its central location in South Asia and being the largest
geographically and economically, India should be expected to hold greater sway
over each of its neighbours. However, the “surgical strikes” on Pakistan of
2016 have been followed by a greater number of ceasefire violations and
cross-border infiltration on the Line of Control. The 2015 Nepal blockade and a
subsequent cut in Indian aid channelled through the government did not force
the Nepali government to amend its constitution as intended, and the subsequent
merger of Mr. Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal (UML) with Prachanda’s CPN(Maoist)
is seen as a reversal of India’s influence there.
Mr. Modi’s decision to abruptly cancel his visit to Male in
2015 did not yield the required changes in the government’s treatment of the
opposition, and New Delhi’s dire warnings about Mr. Yameen’s emergency in the
past month have led to the Maldives cancelling its participation in the Indian
Navy’s “Milan” exercises. Even in Bangladesh, the Indian Army chief, General
Bipin Rawat’s tough talking last week about immigration has drawn ire there,
with Bangladesh’s Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan describing the remarks as
untrue, unfounded and not helpful.
While many of these factors are hard to reverse, the
fundamental facts of geography and shared cultures in South Asia are also
undeniable, and India must focus its efforts to return to a more comfortable
peace, and to “Making the Neighbourhood First Again”.
Time for reversal
To begin with, despite conventional wisdom on the benefits
of hard power and realpolitik, India’s most potent tool is its soft power. Its
successes in Bhutan and Afghanistan, for example, have much more to do with its
development assistance than its defence assistance. It’s heartening, therefore,
that after sharp drops in 2016 (of 36%) and 2017 (of 19%) year on year, the
budget allocations for South Asia have seen an increase (of 6%) in 2018. After
the Doklam crisis was defused in 2017, India also moved swiftly to resolve
differences with Bhutan on hydropower pricing, and this February it announced a
tariff hike for energy from Bhutan’s Chhukha project, the first in several
years.
Next, instead of opposing every project by China in the
region, the government must attempt a three-pronged approach. First, where
possible, India should collaborate with China in the manner it has over the
Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Economic corridor. Second, when it feels
a project is a threat to its interests, India should make a counter-offer to
the project, if necessary in collaboration with its Quadrilateral partners,
Japan, the U.S. and Australia. Third, India should coexist with projects that
do not necessitate intervention, while formulating a set of South Asian
principles for sustainable development assistance that can be used across the
region.
This will all only be possible if India and China reset
bilateral ties, which have seen a marked slide over the past few years. It is
noteworthy that the government appears to have started this process with
Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale’s recent visit to Beijing.
Learning from ASEAN
It will also be impossible to renew the compact with the
neighbours without reviving the SAARC process. In their book The ASEAN
Miracle, Kishore Mahbubani and Jeffery Sng describe in detail the need for
SAARC to learn from the success of ASEAN. Mr. Mahbubani suggests that leaders
of SAARC countries meet more often informally, that they interfere less in the
internal workings of each other’s governments, and that there be more
interaction at every level of government. They also say that just as Indonesia,
the biggest economy in the ASEAN, allowed smaller countries such as Singapore
to take the lead, India too must take a back seat in decision-making, enabling
others to build a more harmonious SAARC process.
“It is much safer to be feared than to be loved,” wrote
Niccolo Machiavelli, “when one of the two must be wanting.” The government’s
challenge is to steer India towards a course where it is both feared and loved
in appropriate measure, and away from a situation in which it is neither feared
nor loved.
suhasini.h@thehindu.co.in
XXX
Older
Op-Eds
Dark
clouds across Asia (09.01.18)
What awaits the Asia-Pacific in 2018? Prospects appear, if
anything, bleaker than was the case in 2017. More disorder, coming with
increasing signs of a breakdown in inter and intra-state relations, is perhaps
on the horizon. The Asian region is nowhere near achieving the kind of
equilibrium that the Concert of Europe brought to 19th century Europe.
Between the two giants
The region is today an area of intense geostrategic and
geo-economic competition. China is the rising economic and military power in
Asia today — the second most important economic power after the U.S. and having
the second or third most powerful military. In seeking dominance over Asia,
however, it not only has to contend with a strong military and economic U.S.
presence in the region, but it also cannot afford to ignore the competition
from Japan and India. In mid-2017 in Doklam, India had demonstrated that it was more than
capable of standing up to China’s bullying tactics.
Much of the speculation about the extent of China’s rise is
based on the common presumption that the U.S. under President Donald Trump had
surrendered its global leadership role. The reluctance of the U.S. to embark on
‘new wars’, especially in Asia, does not, however, undermine its geopolitical,
geostrategic and geo-economic pre-eminence. It is not China’s rise, but the
breakdown of the institution of the state, as is evident in Afghanistan and
Syria, that poses far more pressing problems for Asia.
Undoubtedly, East Asia will remain a troubled region for
much of 2018, with the leadership of North Korea intent on playing increasingly
dangerous games and engaging in nuclear sabre-rattling. It is unpredictable at
this point whether this would lead to a major destabilisation of the region,
with far-reaching consequences for Asia and the world.
The future of the rest of the Asia in 2018 is again
dependent on how the strategic triangle of state relations between China,
Pakistan and India plays out, as also the extent to which events in West Asia
deteriorate. The situation has become more complicated as China and Pakistan
have further strengthened their axis, which is inimically disposed towards
India. Fragmentation of already difficult relationships does not hold out much
hope for any improvement in 2018.
As it is, options for an improvement in relations in 2018
between China and India appear limited. The 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist
Party (October 2017) essentially highlighted China’s quest for global
leadership and the means to achieve it, including making China’s military
‘world class’, one capable of ‘winning wars’. It contained few hints that
signified a possible thaw in India-China relations.
Shots across India’s bow
In 2017, India-China relations had steadily deteriorated.
China is clearly peeved that India refuses to participate in its Belt and Road Initiative that straddles Asia and
Europe. The stand-off at Doklam in mid-2017 was possibly intended by China to
be a ‘shot across India’s bow’, to send a message to India. More such
situations will, in all likelihood, be repeated in 2018.
China can also be expected in 2018 to resort to other
pressure tactics against India. Backing Pakistani intransigence in ‘needling’
India is certain to be one. Additionally, China can be expected to intensify
its moves to displace India as the major partner in relations with many of
India’s neighbours — 2017 had already seen China moving in this direction vis-à-vis Nepal,
the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar. As it is, China has succeeded
to some extent in denting India’s long-standing relationship with Russia,
having established a strategic congruence with that country.
India would again need to be on its guard in 2018 as China
consolidates its takeover of Gwadar (Pakistan) and Hambantota (Sri Lanka)
ports. Together with China’s establishment of a base in Djibouti (on the Horn
of Africa), India could find itself at the receiving end of China’s ‘Wei-Qi
tactics’.
As India grows closer to the U.S. in 2018, the India-China
equation could further worsen. The most recent National Security Strategy of
the U.S. refers to China as a ‘rival’, while welcoming India’s emergence as a
‘strategic and defence partner’. This is certain to ratchet up the rivalry
between India and China in the Asia-Pacific region, likely to be further
compounded by India’s association with the Quadrilateral (of U.S., India, Japan
and Australia).
Looking at Pakistan
Again, 2018 holds out little prospect of an improvement in
India-Pakistan relations. The last year ended with a serious ceasefire
violation along the Line of Control in the Rajouri Sector, in which army men,
including a Major, were killed. In 2017 there was an over 200% increase in
ceasefire violations, with infiltration touching a four-year high.
This year began with a major terrorist attack by
Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) elements on a Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) camp
in Avantipur (Pulwama district) in which five CRPF men were killed. The treatment
meted out to the family of Kulbhushan Jadhav (currently incarcerated in a
Pakistani prison) and the fake news that followed their visit provides an index
of Pakistan’s cold, calculated and consistent hostility towards India. The
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) continues to remain in
cold storage. Pakistan has also not refrained from persisting with its proxies
like the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the JeM in its war with India.
In its neighbourhood, India must be prepared during 2018 for
a further deterioration of the situation in already disturbed Afghanistan. The
Afghan state is in real danger of imploding, and this situation could worsen.
The latest attack by Mr. Trump on Pakistan’s duplicity in dealing with
terrorism could well result in Pakistan adopting a still more perverse and
disruptive role here, and providing further encouragement to the Afghan Taliban
and the Haqqani network.
The current peace talks may well collapse as a result. Any
possibility of exerting greater military pressure by the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization and allied forces may prove futile.
West Asia in turmoil
The situation in West Asia in 2018 could well turn out to be
far grimmer than in 2017. West Asia is at the crossroads today. The entire
region is in turmoil. Syria has almost ceased to be a state. The war here
entails major powers like the U.S. and Russia, proxies for certain West Asian
countries, a medley of non-state actors, apart from terrorist outfits such as
the Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda.
Intrinsic to the Syrian and West Asian imbroglio is the
ongoing war within Islam featuring, at one level, intense rivalry between Sunni
Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran, and at another, the spectre of a split down the
line between the Arab and the non-Arab and the Sunni and Shiite worlds.
In addition, there are other forces aggravating an already
complicated situation, viz. the war in Yemen, the disruption within the Gulf
Cooperation Council, the nascent upheavals in Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the
spectre of de-stabilisation that hovers over much of the region. None of these
issues is likely to find resolution in 2018, and could suck in more states of
the region.
If the U.S. were to follow through with its announcement to
recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, it might well ignite new tensions
across the entire Arab world. This will further inflame radical Islamist ideas
and tendencies across the region, paving the way for a new round of conflict.
This year could also see a resurgence in terrorism. Both the
IS and al-Qaeda seem to have acquired a new salience lately. The collapse of
the so-called Islamic Caliphate and its territorial demise has hardly weakened
the terror potential of the IS. In much the same manner as the Afghan jihad in
1980s and 1990s exacerbated insurgencies across parts of the world, retreating
IS members returning to their homeland could provide a new narrative of
terrorism in 2018. Existing cells across many parts of the world could well be
re-vitalised as a result. The wave of attacks seen recently in Afghanistan can
be attributed to this vanguard of retreating IS fighters.
Given such a scenario, it is difficult to be optimistic
about a better 2018.
M.K. Narayanan is a former National Security Advisor and
a former Governor of West Bengal
Talk like a South Asian (23.02.18)
The Maldives
imbroglio has become a fable for international politics. Politics,
especially international politics, often appears to be an eerie combination of
slapstick and farce. One sees an exhibition of egos, of the sheer pomposity of
power barely hidden behind sanctimonious words like national interest and
security. Whenever Chinese one-upmanship finesses India in the neighbourhood,
we fall back on exercises in pedantry, unaware that India cuts a sorry figure in
the local political scene. Our
obsession with Pakistan and China makes us indifferent to other
countries in the neighbourhood. South Asia as place, as a bubbling culture of
diversity, gets converted to space or at the most to turf or territory. The
future of India as a South Asian imagination becomes dim as India turns
hysterical over China’s entry into the Maldives. Yet three things are obvious.
We have no sense of the Maldives. We treat their politicians as vassals who
have become rebels. We are almost orientalist in our attitudes to islands like
the Maldives, Mauritius, treating them as lesser orders of political reality.
It is as if the annexation of Sikkim is our chosen model for South Asian
politics.
A limiting framework
One thing is clear. Not much can be expected within the
current framework of policy, where categories like security operate in a
Pavlovian style and India acts only when it sees a Pakistani or Chinese move.
The current frameworks and mentalities add little to policy. India needs to see
South Asia as a new imaginary if the idea of India and Indian foreign policy is
to succeed.
South Asia is a tapestry of myriad ecologies from islands to
mountains, a confluence of civilisations, religions and regions. India is today
the dominant power, but beyond a sense of hegemony, it plays bully and Mr.
Simplicissimus. One needs to add the power of these diverse imaginations to an
emerging hybridity called India. Consider a few examples. During the
recent Cyclone
Ockhi, a priest told me, we are fisherman, we think from sea to land but we
are run by a land-locked regime. An understanding of island geographies could
broaden into ecological imagination, create new imaginaries to unlock India’s
land-locked mindset. An island imaginary adds as much to our imagination and
alters our attitude to marginal people on our coastlines.
Watching South Asia, one senses India lacks of a sense of
neighbourhood and region as a component of our imagination. Take Kathmandu. The
similarities between India and Nepal are immense, and yet India lacks any
comprehension of Nepal’s fierce sense of itself. By playing big brother, India
repeatedly displays a lack of sense of the diversities around which need a new
sense of unity. By acting as a bully or an un-empathetic headmaster wielding
the stick, India reveals an absence of its South Asian self. It issues warnings
to the Maldives or
Nepal, threatening them not to be seduced by the Chinese imperative, but it
does little to sustain the reciprocity and autonomy of the relationship. A
change in tactics is not enough; one needs a sense of strategy, a paradigmatic
argument for a new South Asia which adds to the creativity of Indian democracy.
Time for renewal
Reflecting on this context, one is reminded of a South
African proverb which says one must invent a stranger to renew oneself. The
stranger is the other that renews the self, reveals the unities and
reciprocities behind difference. In the South Asian context, India must adapt
these words of wisdom by inventing and reinventing the neighbour every day. It
has to invent a South Asia which is civilisational, reciprocal, local in its
diversity. Merely thinking as a nation state reveals the procrustean nature of
the Indian mind, making it a victim of 19th century mindsets.
Even experiments which could have been promising have lost
their creative power. One of the most exciting of these regional ideas was the
creation of the South
Asian University (SAU), with a faculty from all South Asian countries.
While we have the faculty, what we lack is a South Asian theory of culture and
knowledge which should anchor this imagination. SAU looks like any other
university, part of the embassy set in South Delhi. It needs a manifesto which
makes South Asia central to its imagination. Such a manifesto must transform
ecology and culture into a theory of South Asian diversity and difference. The
borderland, the frontier, the island, the riverine communities have to anchor a
local imagination which diversifies South Asia as a region. Out of ecology
should emerge a creative sense of regionalism as a new style of ecological
politics rather than treating the region as a lesser order of politics in a
global regime.
Second, the availability of eccentricity as dissent,
alternatives, minorities has to be reworked constitutionally so the focus is
not on trite obsessions with India-Pakistan but a genuine exploration of voices
and theories. One has to weave ideas of Swadeshi and Swaraj into foreign
policy, where South Asia creates the availability of vernaculars. SAU as a
dialogue of ecologies, religions, vernaculars located in a civilisational frame
can add to the ideas of knowledge, sustain memories and defeated cultures
without getting bogged in the modern sentimentality called development. South
Asia as a concept to be sustainable and creative has to be life-giving.
Diversity becomes the next axis of the South Asia
imagination. Between its demographic density and its ethnic diversity, South
Asia offers an experiment in religious dialogue, an exercise in the cultivation
of informal economies, a surge for human rights where culture and livelihoods
become central. The creativity of civil society and social movements marks the
dynamism of these regions. In fact, South Asia is going to become a site for
the growing battle between human rights/cultural diversity and the
fundamentalist imagination.
South Asia, with its motley collection of minorities, has to
rethink the question of the border and border crossings which are so crucial to
the survival of these groups. One is thinking not only of the Rohingya, but
the Rohingya
as a paradigm for border crossings. We need an open idea of hospitality and
the nation so ethnic imaginations do not merely become destabilising but
provide new vernaculars of the imagination in terms of inventive notions of
citizenship, livelihood and regionalism. One has to allow for tribal, ethnic,
nomadic and pastoral groups moving freely without being hounded by the
panopticon called the boundary.
A warning signal
One has to be clear it is not the immediacy and constant
intrusiveness of China or the bellicosity of Pakistan which can trigger a new
South Asian identity and imagination. Security is too narrow and provincial a
base either for the sustenance of diversity or for the promotion of peace. The
so-called imbroglio of the Maldives must be a warning signal to persuade civil
society groups like human rights activists, media, university academics to
articulate a new idea of South Asian identity and democracy, to revive the
neighbourhood as an imagination, when globalism is turning colourless. We need
a movement from muscular diplomacy, which
we are poor at, to a diplomacy of diversity for the South Asian imagination and
drama to be reinvented again. Democracy in India cannot exist without the
extension of the democratic imagination to the region. South Asia as an
imaginary becomes text and the pretext for such an experiment. An India with a new
South Asian identity triggers a new imagination beyond the dullness of security
and nation state.
Shiv Visvanathan is a member of Compost Heap, a group of
activists and academics exploring alternative imaginations and futures
It’s time to reimagine South Asia: On
India-China-Pakistan cooperation (06.03.18)
A few months ago, Anjum Altaf, former dean of the
prestigious Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS), wrote an article
in the Dawnnewspaper, making a strong case for mutually beneficial
economic cooperation between Pakistan and India. He also gave a revealing
example of how this has become impossible because of “blind nationalism” in
Pakistan.
“At the time,” he wrote, “when tomatoes were selling for
Rs300 a kilo in Lahore, they were available at Indian Rs40 a kilo in Amritsar a
mere 30 miles away. But a visceral Indo-phobia, shared by many of our
influentials, stood in the way of consumers benefiting from the lower priced
supply.” Many Pakistani politicians want nothing to be imported from India, the
enemy nation.
This kind of blind nationalism is by no means Pakistan’s
monopoly. Those who watch Indian TV channels debating India-Pakistan relations
routinely hear similar Pak-phobia. Result: despite being neighbours, India and
Pakistan are among the least integrated nations in the world. Because of their
unending mutual hostility, South Asia too has become the least integrated
region in the world. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
(SAARC) is in a coma. Sadly, the most populous region in the world has also
remained home to the largest number of poor people in the world.
So near, so far
A few striking examples will show how our two countries,
which were part of a single seamless socio-economic and cultural entity before
1947, have now completely drifted apart. There are no direct flights between
their capitals — New Delhi and Islamabad. The frequency of Delhi-Lahore and
Mumbai-Karachi flights have become minimal. The Mumbai-Karachi ferry service
(the two port cities, once part of a single province, are closer to each other
than either Mumbai and Delhi or Karachi and Islamabad) was stopped after the
1965 war.
In this age of information revolution, the number of phone
calls between Indian and Pakistani citizens (including calls between close
relatives of divided families) is negligible, mostly out of fear of being
questioned by their respective security agencies. At less than $3 billion
annually, trade with Pakistan accounts for a meagre 0.4% of India’s growing
global commerce.
Those who are happy with this status quo have set responses.
On the Indian side, it will be said that terror and trade cannot go together.
The Narendra Modi government has raised the bar higher — terror and talks
cannot go together. On the Pakistani side, resolution of the Kashmir issue has
become a precondition for any substantial bilateral cooperation.
But is the status quo benefiting either country? The answer
is obvious, except to those arrogant ultra-nationalists who think India now has
a seat on the global high table and hence need not care for Pakistan, and to
those narrow-minded Pakistani patriots who think they need not care for India
since they now have two protectors — China and the Muslim Ummah.
China, of course, has become a new factor influencing
India’s negative attitude towards Pakistan,
both among policy-makers and the
common people. Our Army chief, General Bipin Rawat’s egregious remark last year
about India being ready for a simultaneous two-and-a-half front war with
Pakistan and China (the “half front” being our own alienated people in Kashmir)
has helped solidify an impression that our two large neighbours can never be
friendly towards India. If India’s foreign and defence policies proceed on this
belief, South Asia is surely heading towards a future of intensified
hostilities and conflicts. Arms manufacturers and distant destabilisers will
profit by this at the cost of common Indians and Pakistanis, who need
employment, education, health care and food-and-environmental security. These
needs can be met only through regional cooperation, not regional rivalry.
China, part of the solution
In other words, can China become a part of the solution,
rather than being perceived as a part of the India-Pakistan problem? A
three-way India-China-Pakistan cooperation is not only necessary but indeed
possible, and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
provides a practical framework for such partnership. Unfortunately, Mr. Modi
has allowed himself to be misled by his advisers on the BRI. The government’s
opposition to the BRI is based, among other things, on the myopic argument that
the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project under the BRI,
violates India’s sovereignty since it passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir
(PoK).
Not only does this argument hold no water but it also
undermines India’s long-term development and security interests. First, CPEC
does not recognise PoK to be Pakistan’s sovereign territory. Article VI in the
1963 China-Pakistan boundary agreement clearly states in that “after the
settlement of the Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India, the sovereign
authority concerned will reopen negotiations with the Government of the
People’s Republic of China....” Second, there is little possibility of India
ever getting PoK, or Pakistan ever getting the Indian side of Kashmir, through war
or by any other means. Therefore, connectivity, cooperation and economic
integration are the only realistic bases for any future India-Pakistan
settlement of the Kashmir dispute.
Third, and most important, both China and Pakistan have
stated that they are open to India joining CPEC. China has also expressed its
readiness to rename CPEC suitably to both address India’s concerns and to
reflect the project’s expanded regional scope. Already, Iran, Afghanistan and
several Central Asian republics have agreed to join this ambitious regional
connectivity project. Will it help or hurt India if it joins this renamed
initiative as an equal partner? Will it not connect Lahore and Amritsar (also
Delhi and the rest of India), the two sides of Kashmir (which all Kashmir-based
political parties want), Sindh and southern Punjab with Gujarat and Rajasthan,
and Karachi with Mumbai?
Interdependence vital
A no less seminal benefit for India is that by joining the
renamed CPEC, it would gain land access, through Pakistan, to Afghanistan,
Iran, Central Asia and western China. And if our leaders show vision, ambition
and resolve, the CPEC-plus-India can be linked to the
Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Corridor, thus creating a grand garland of
connectivity and integration for the whole of South Asia. If 1947 divided our
subcontinent, here is an opportunity for India, Pakistan and all other
countries in the region to come together and rise in shared progress and
prosperity.
Regrettably, the same short-sighted advisers who have misled
Mr. Modi on the BRI and CPEC are selling India the pipe dream of an alternative
connectivity project by the “Quadrilateral” of the U.S., Japan, Australia and
India. This is unlikely to take off. Even if it does, its developmental
benefits to India will be limited since it will seek to keep China and Pakistan
out. We are also told that India does not need the CPEC since it has already
partnered with Iran in building the Chabahar port. India’s gains due to
Chabahar are modest, and nowhere comparable to those that would accrue by India
having a direct land access to Afghanistan through Pakistan, courtesy a renamed
CPEC. The latter is also indispensable for the success of two other mega projects
that are critical for India’s energy security and accelerated economic growth —
the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) and Iran-Pakistan-India gas
pipelines.
Here is another huge potential gain for South Asia. The
proposed connectivity initiative, which would create strong new bonds of
regional cooperation and interdependence, could also help resolve three
long-standing geopolitical problems in the region, in which countless people
have been killed — terrorism, Kashmir and Afghanistan.
To realise this vision of a resurgent South Asia, two
obstacles will have to be removed blind nationalism and the unfriendly designs
of extra-regional powers. As Karl Marx would have said: peoples of South Asia
and China, unite! You have nothing to lose but your chains; you have a bright
new future to win.
Sudheendra Kulkarni served in the Prime Minister’s Office
during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s tenure
(All of the above articles have been taken straight from The
Hindu. We owe it all to them. This is just an effort to consolidate opinions
expressed in The Hindu in a subject-wise manner.)
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