India - Afghanistan Relations

Issue: How India may engage key Stakeholders in Afghanistan Peace and Redevelopment Process?

Recent Developments in Afghanistan:

After the recent terrorist attacks in Afghanistan, including the one which killed five UAE diplomats, Russia has “(urged) the warring parties in Afghanistan, primarily the leaders of the Taliban movement, to renounce violence and to take urgent action to launch intra-Afghan dialogue”.

Russian Approach: Russia has indeed been warming up to the Taliban for several weeks now. And on 27 December, Moscow hosted representatives from Pakistan and China to discuss the war in Afghanistan. Notably, no Afghan representative was invited. After the discussions, the three countries “expressed particular concern about the rising activity in the country of extremist groups, including the Afghan branch of IS (Islamic State)”, and advocated a “flexible approach to remove certain (Taliban) figures from (UN) sanctions lists as part of efforts to foster a peaceful dialogue between Kabul and the Taliban movement”.

It seems that Moscow genuinely believes that the IS is a bigger threat than the Taliban.

Analysis and Way Ahead:

Taliban cannot be trusted: A video released by the Taliban as recently as last month had flaunted its alliance with Al-Qaeda and proclaimed itself as the “hope of Muslims for reviving back the honour of the Muslim Ummah” and “for taking back the Islamic lands!”

Background of IS in Afghanistan: On the other hand, the IS fighters in Afghanistan are mostly made up of disgruntled jihadis of the Taliban. Many of them joined the IS during the Taliban’s battle for succession after the news of Mullah Omar’s demise surfaced in July 2015.

Why India doesn’t buy the IS theory? New Delhi is aware of these facts and is therefore not buying into the theory that the Taliban can be used to fight the IS. This flawed theory, India knows well, is propelled by the generals in Rawalpindi as it gives them an extended run of life in Afghanistan, the country they perceive to be their strategic backyard. And Pakistan was expected to play the IS card in order to make a comeback just when New Delhi’s role was about to receive a boost.

India in Afghanistan: India had just transferred four attack helicopters to the Afghanistan government to boost its fight against the Taliban. More military assistance seemed likely as the US was on board: The revival of the India-US-Afghanistan trilateral was announced in August 2016 by John Kerry, the US secretary of state.

India must not let its efforts in helping Kabul contain the Taliban be punctured by Russian overtures to Taliban.

In fact, India must begin to re-establish its contacts with the various ethnic groups in Afghanistan. In tough times, it is always better to have support on the ground rather than to rely merely on principled speeches to be delivered in international conferences on Afghanistan. India’s own experience of supporting the Northern Alliance during the Taliban’s reign from 1996-2001 is testimony to that.